108
FXUS63 KDLH 071833
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
133 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE.
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST TO PINE COUNTY.
- HOT AND HUMID TODAY, THEN A BRIEF COOLDOWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
- MINIMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE HEAT THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA EAST INTO PINE
COUNTY. MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTH AND EAST EVENTUALLY.
STAYED A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE ON THE AREA FOR NOW. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 3-4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT DUE TO TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THIS MORNING'S PASSING COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO LEAD THE WAY
FOR A STATIONARY FRONT TO SET UP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO DRIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ALONG THIS FRONT, EXPECT GENERALLY
PRETTY SLOW STORM MOTIONS, ROBUST PWATS, AND TRAINING STORMS SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY. A BAND OF 1-3" OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 4-6" POSSIBLE. MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWLY IMPROVING,
WITH THE MOST LIKELY PLACEMENT LOOKING TO BE ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES, FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND INTO
NW WI. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL SOME SOLUTIONS THAT PUT THE HEAVY
BAND DIRECTLY OVER THE TWIN PORTS OR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TWIN
CITIES, AND RUN-TO-RUN PLACEMENT IS STILL VARIABLE, SO CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM AT THIS TIME. WHERE THAT HEAVY RAIN DOES FALL, SOME LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING SEEMS LIKELY. ONCE THE AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN
GAINS SOME FORECAST CONFIDENCE, A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EDGE
OF CONVECTION. EXPECT MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING, AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
EXPECT A FAIRLY WARM DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S FURTHER SOUTH. FOLLOWING THE STATIONARY FRONT
PRECIPITATION, A COOLER DAY SHOULD BE ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND NOTABLY LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. THOSE
LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD STAY WITH US FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THEY
BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND. AS WE STAY IN UPPER LEVEL ZONAL
FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY, ANY SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THAT FLOW
COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
ROBUST UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL
PROBABLY DRIVE THE TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WIDESPREAD 90S POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. SLIGHT COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS BRD AND THE STORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL MN. DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS NE MN AND PORTIONS
OF NW WI AND FEATURE MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CLOUD BASES WAS NOTED AT BRD BETWEEN 1730Z AND 1800Z. THINK
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CLOUDS AT
BRD. REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS ARE SHOWING VFR CLOUD BASES, SO
LESS OF A CEILING CONCERN THERE FOR NOW. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINALS IN HEAVY
RAIN. OPTED TO KEEP A PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS FOR
NOW. INL HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. OPTED
FOR IFR MIST AND PATCHY FOG FOR NOW AT THAT LOCATION. IF THE
RAIN MOVES OUT OVERNIGHT AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS,
FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY WITH LOW
CEILINGS. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
A FAIRLY CALM DAY ON LAKE SUPERIOR IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN
AFTERNOON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND, EXCEPT NEAR SHORE FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO SAXON HARBOR WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. EXPECT POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND EAST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. AN
ISOLATED STORM COULD BE SEVERE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN, MOST LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 2 IN MN AND ACROSS NW WI.
IN THAT AREA, 1-3" OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 4"+. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AREAS CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO RAIN. AFTERNOON RH OF 35-40% IS POSSIBLE TODAY
AND TOMORROW IN THE MN ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE (OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS)
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LITTLE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A WARM-
UP EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR MNZ033-034-036-038.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...HUYCK
DISCUSSION...LEVENS
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...LEVENS
FIRE WEATHER...LEVENS
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