188
FXUS63 KDLH 071954
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
254 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO
THE HAYWARD LAKES THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND MINOR FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE.
- A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST TO PINE COUNTY WHERE THE RISK OF
FLOODING IS GREATEST.
- A BRIEF COOLDOWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY
UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
- MINIMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE HEAT THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AND
PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESS WILL INCREASE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
MAIN STORIES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE INVOLVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN THE WARM-UP THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS.
SYNOPSIS...
AS OF 19Z THIS AFTERNOON A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED
FROM NEAR WATERTOWN, SD TO NEAR ST. CLOUD, MN TO NEAR BAYFIELD,
WI. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALED AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. A COMPACT MCS WAS NOTED OVER WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WHILE AN MCV FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WAS CENTERED OVER FAR
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITHIN AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN. THE
LATEST SPC RAP ANALYSIS REVEALED MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG
OVER EAST-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH A
GRADIENT NORTHWARD ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EXPECT THE MCS TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ALONG THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AS
GREATER INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
COMPLEX. MEANWHILE THE TRAILING MCV WILL CREATE A LOCALIZED
ENHANCEMENT IN CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN ITS WAKE. THE SHOWERS
OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
A LOBE OF 500 MB VORTICITY OVER NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND A SMALL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS EVENING,
AN 850 MB LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND CREATE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT.
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVERNIGHT WITH MUCAPE
VALUES OF 500-2000 J/KG STRADDLING THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD WITH TIME TONIGHT. MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES BY 08.06Z AND WILL PROPAGATE FARTHER
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
A RESERVOIR OF PWAT VALUES OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY THETA-E
ADVECTION THROUGH LATE EVENING. FREEZING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND
13KFT WHICH COMBINED WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS SHOULD PRODUCE LOW-CENTROID STORMS AND
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. SEVERAL CAMS REVEAL A
TRAINING PATTER OF STORMS TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHICH
RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
ISOLATED 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WITH ALL THESE
FACTORS IN MIND ALONG THE THE RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE
NORTHLAND, WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FROM THE BRAINERD
LAKES EAST INTO PINE COUNTY. THAT AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OVER THE WATCH AREA
RANGES FROM 1.5 TO 2.25 INCHES IN 1 HOUR AND 1.8-2.5 INCHES IN 3
HOURS. THOSE PRECIPITATION RATES ARE WELL WITHIN REACH GIVEN
THIS SETUP.
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS MORE LIMITED. THE MODEST INSTABILITY
AND MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MY AREA.
THE EXISTENCE OF THE MCS/MCV COMBINATION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
DISPLACE THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND FOR
TONIGHT, WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OUT
OF OUR AREA. THESE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
DECREASES RAPIDLY AS STORMS WEAKEN.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LOITER OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST TO OUR SOUTH WHICH MAY PROPAGATE
EASTWARD INTO THE HAYWARD AND PHILLIPS AREAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT OCCURS, THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING
OVER THOSE AREAS. TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY TREND COOLER FOR
WEDNESDAY DUE IN PART TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL ALLOW A WEAK LAKE BREEZE TO PROPAGATE WELL INLAND KEEPING
TEMPS COOLER. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S NORTH
AND SOUTH TO THE LOW TO UPPER 70S FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO
NW WI AND SHORELINE AREAS OF THE ARROWHEAD.
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WE WILL ENTER A PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES DWINDLE AS ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES. UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY THETA-E ADVECTION TO BRING A RETURN
OF UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AS
WELL. THE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS WILL TREND HIGHER
STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AT LEAST. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. SLIGHT COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS BRD AND THE STORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL MN. DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS NE MN AND PORTIONS
OF NW WI AND FEATURE MAINLY VFR CLOUD BASES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CLOUD BASES WAS NOTED AT BRD BETWEEN 1730Z AND 1800Z. THINK
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CLOUDS AT
BRD. REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS ARE SHOWING VFR CLOUD BASES, SO
LESS OF A CEILING CONCERN THERE FOR NOW. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINALS IN HEAVY
RAIN. OPTED TO KEEP A PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS FOR
NOW. INL HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. OPTED
FOR IFR MIST AND PATCHY FOG FOR NOW AT THAT LOCATION. IF THE
RAIN MOVES OUT OVERNIGHT AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS,
FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY WITH LOW
CEILINGS. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES OF LESS THAN 2 FEET ARE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WHICH WOULD BUILD WAVES FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT MAINLY FROM
THE BRAINERD LAKES EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS WITH 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE
AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF 2-4 INCHES. A SECONDARY AREA OF RAIN AND
STORMS IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AREAS CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER RECEIVE
LITTLE TO NO RAIN. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE (OUTSIDE OF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS) TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RH VALUES WILL DRY OUT
INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE NORTH OF A LINE FROM NORTHOME TO
ELY TO NEAR GRAND PORTAGE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP RHS
HIGHER SOUTH OF US-2. AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN DWINDLES. A WARM-UP EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR MNZ033-034-036-038.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...HUYCK
FIRE WEATHER...HUYCK
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