685
FXUS63 KDLH 080738
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
238 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER INLAND NORTHWEST TO NORTH-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. MODERATE TO POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL FALLING ON TOP OF PREVIOUSLY HEAVY RAINFALL
PERSISTS FOR THE BRAINERD LAKES TO PINE COUNTY REGION.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ENDING AT
WASHBURN COUNTY WHERE THE RISK OF FLOODING IS GREATEST.
- MINIMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE HEAT THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- THE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS WILL INCREASE FROM SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BRAINERD LAKES TO
INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. OBSERVED
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2.5 INCHES HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR IN THIS
AREA, ALTHOUGH HIGHEST RIGHT AROUND THE HINCKLEY PART OF WESTERN
PINE COUNTY WHERE DISCRETE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVED OVERHEARD
A FEW HOURS AGO. AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES STILL POSSIBLE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY FOR THIS ENTIRE
AREA THOUGH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE FLOOD WATCH WAS EXPANDED
EARLIER INTO THE BURNETT AND WASHBURN COUNTIES AS MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BRING MINOR FLOODING TO THESE
COUNTIES INTO THE COMMUTE HOURS TODAY.
AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CLEARS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
THIS MORNING, PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS AND CAPPED AT MID-LEVELS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA,
THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A NOTABLE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT SITS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERN PRICE
COUNTY ON THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF IT. IF, A BIG IF, THIS
GRADIENT CAN SHIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD THEN A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR PRICE COUNTY IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BUT RIGHT
NOW THE CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IS FAIRLY LOW.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER FOR THE LATE WEEKEND TO EARLY
WEEK HEAT. HEATRISK BRINGS IN A GENERAL 30-70% CHANCE OF MAJOR
HEAT IMPACTS (HIGHEST IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN AND LOWEST IN INLAND
NORTHWEST WI AND ARROWHEAD), BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AT
LEAST AREAWIDE MODERATE HEAT IMPACTS SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
COULD IN THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S ARE FORECAST. THIS HEAT LASTS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
MAIN STORIES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE INVOLVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN THE WARM-UP THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS.
SYNOPSIS...
AS OF 19Z THIS AFTERNOON A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED
FROM NEAR WATERTOWN, SD TO NEAR ST. CLOUD, MN TO NEAR BAYFIELD,
WI. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALED AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. A COMPACT MCS WAS NOTED OVER WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WHILE AN MCV FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WAS CENTERED OVER FAR
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITHIN AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN. THE
LATEST SPC RAP ANALYSIS REVEALED MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG
OVER EAST-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH A
GRADIENT NORTHWARD ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EXPECT THE MCS TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ALONG THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AS
GREATER INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
COMPLEX. MEANWHILE THE TRAILING MCV WILL CREATE A LOCALIZED
ENHANCEMENT IN CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN ITS WAKE. THE SHOWERS
OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
A LOBE OF 500 MB VORTICITY OVER NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND A SMALL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS EVENING,
AN 850 MB LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND CREATE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT.
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVERNIGHT WITH MUCAPE
VALUES OF 500-2000 J/KG STRADDLING THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD WITH TIME TONIGHT. MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES BY 08.06Z AND WILL PROPAGATE FARTHER
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
A RESERVOIR OF PWAT VALUES OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY THETA-E
ADVECTION THROUGH LATE EVENING. FREEZING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND
13KFT WHICH COMBINED WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS SHOULD PRODUCE LOW-CENTROID STORMS AND
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. SEVERAL CAMS REVEAL A
TRAINING PATTER OF STORMS TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHICH
RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
ISOLATED 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WITH ALL THESE
FACTORS IN MIND ALONG THE THE RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE
NORTHLAND, WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FROM THE BRAINERD
LAKES EAST INTO PINE COUNTY. THAT AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OVER THE WATCH AREA
RANGES FROM 1.5 TO 2.25 INCHES IN 1 HOUR AND 1.8-2.5 INCHES IN 3
HOURS. THOSE PRECIPITATION RATES ARE WELL WITHIN REACH GIVEN
THIS SETUP.
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS MORE LIMITED. THE MODEST INSTABILITY
AND MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MY AREA.
THE EXISTENCE OF THE MCS/MCV COMBINATION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
DISPLACE THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND FOR
TONIGHT, WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OUT
OF OUR AREA. THESE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
DECREASES RAPIDLY AS STORMS WEAKEN.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LOITER OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST TO OUR SOUTH WHICH MAY PROPAGATE
EASTWARD INTO THE HAYWARD AND PHILLIPS AREAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT OCCURS, THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING
OVER THOSE AREAS. TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY TREND COOLER FOR
WEDNESDAY DUE IN PART TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL ALLOW A WEAK LAKE BREEZE TO PROPAGATE WELL INLAND KEEPING
TEMPS COOLER. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S NORTH
AND SOUTH TO THE LOW TO UPPER 70S FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO
NW WI AND SHORELINE AREAS OF THE ARROWHEAD.
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WE WILL ENTER A PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES DWINDLE AS ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES. UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY THETA-E ADVECTION TO BRING A RETURN
OF UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AS
WELL. THE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS WILL TREND HIGHER
STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AT LEAST. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WI/MN STATELINE MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR. EXPECT RAINFALL VISIBILITY IMPACTS
AT ALL TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE THROUGH
12-15Z TODAY. PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD AT ANY GIVEN
TERMINAL SOUTH OF THE RANGE. ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 INCHES OF NEW
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE BRAINERD LAKES TO INLAND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL ENDS WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS LINGER BEHIND THE BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY AS IFR BECOMING MVFR SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR
OUT. THE BORDERLANDS LOOKS TO LARGELY REMAIN WITHOUT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIMITED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND FOG. AN
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF FOG BUILDS AFTER 03Z THURS ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA.
IN TIME IFR VIS AND MAYBE CEILINGS COULD BE NEEDED IN TAFS FOR
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOG
POTENTIAL.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING AND CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT
ALONG THE SHORELINES EITHER THIS AFTERNOON. DENSE MARINE FOG MAY
FORM TONIGHT FOR THE TWIN PORTS TO SOUTH SHORE. ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED IN TIME FOR THIS POSSIBLE DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
HEAVY RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED FOR ALL DISTRICTS SOUTH OF THE IRON
RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MOVES OUT OF
REGION THROUGH INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THOUGH KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS FOR FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A NOTABLE GRADIENT IN OBSERVED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED TODAY FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MINRHS FROM 30-40% ARE
FORECAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE AND ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD AND CLOSER TO 50-60% ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HWY 2.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MINRHS FROM 30-45% ARE FORECAST
THURSDAY. WINDS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY REMAIN LIGHT AND SLOWLY
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WARM SATURDAY AND BECOME HOT AND
HUMID SUNDAY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ033-034-036-
038.
WI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ006-007.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...NLY
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...NLY
FIRE WEATHER...NLY
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