434
FXUS63 KDLH 081747
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1247 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER INLAND NORTHWEST TO NORTH-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. MODERATE TO POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL FALLING ON TOP OF PREVIOUSLY HEAVY RAINFALL PERSISTS
FOR THE BRAINERD LAKES TO PINE COUNTY REGION.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ENDING AT
WASHBURN COUNTY WHERE THE RISK OF FLOODING IS GREATEST.
- MINIMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE HEAT THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- THE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS WILL INCREASE FROM SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BRAINERD LAKES TO
INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. OBSERVED
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2.5 INCHES HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR IN THIS
AREA, ALTHOUGH HIGHEST RIGHT AROUND THE HINCKLEY PART OF WESTERN
PINE COUNTY WHERE DISCRETE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVED OVERHEARD
A FEW HOURS AGO. AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES STILL POSSIBLE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY FOR THIS ENTIRE
AREA THOUGH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE FLOOD WATCH WAS EXPANDED
EARLIER INTO THE BURNETT AND WASHBURN COUNTIES AS MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BRING MINOR FLOODING TO THESE
COUNTIES INTO THE COMMUTE HOURS TODAY.
AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CLEARS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
THIS MORNING, PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS AND CAPPED AT MID-LEVELS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA,
THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A NOTABLE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT SITS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH SOUTHERN PRICE
COUNTY ON THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF IT. IF, A BIG IF, THIS
GRADIENT CAN SHIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD THEN A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR PRICE COUNTY IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BUT RIGHT
NOW THE CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IS FAIRLY LOW.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER FOR THE LATE WEEKEND TO EARLY
WEEK HEAT. HEATRISK BRINGS IN A GENERAL 30-70% CHANCE OF MAJOR
HEAT IMPACTS (HIGHEST IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN AND LOWEST IN INLAND
NORTHWEST WI AND ARROWHEAD), BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AT
LEAST AREAWIDE MODERATE HEAT IMPACTS SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
COULD IN THE UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S ARE FORECAST. THIS HEAT LASTS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
MAIN STORIES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE INVOLVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN THE WARM-UP THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS.
SYNOPSIS...
AS OF 19Z THIS AFTERNOON A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED
FROM NEAR WATERTOWN, SD TO NEAR ST. CLOUD, MN TO NEAR BAYFIELD,
WI. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALED AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. A COMPACT MCS WAS NOTED OVER WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WHILE AN MCV FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WAS CENTERED OVER FAR
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITHIN AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN. THE
LATEST SPC RAP ANALYSIS REVEALED MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG
OVER EAST-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH A
GRADIENT NORTHWARD ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EXPECT THE MCS TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ALONG THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AS
GREATER INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
COMPLEX. MEANWHILE THE TRAILING MCV WILL CREATE A LOCALIZED
ENHANCEMENT IN CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN ITS WAKE. THE SHOWERS
OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
A LOBE OF 500 MB VORTICITY OVER NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND A SMALL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS EVENING,
AN 850 MB LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND CREATE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT.
INSTABILITY WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVERNIGHT WITH MUCAPE
VALUES OF 500-2000 J/KG STRADDLING THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD WITH TIME TONIGHT. MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES BY 08.06Z AND WILL PROPAGATE FARTHER
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
A RESERVOIR OF PWAT VALUES OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHERLY THETA-E
ADVECTION THROUGH LATE EVENING. FREEZING HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND
13KFT WHICH COMBINED WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS SHOULD PRODUCE LOW-CENTROID STORMS AND
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. SEVERAL CAMS REVEAL A
TRAINING PATTER OF STORMS TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHICH
RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
ISOLATED 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WITH ALL THESE
FACTORS IN MIND ALONG THE THE RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE
NORTHLAND, WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FROM THE BRAINERD
LAKES EAST INTO PINE COUNTY. THAT AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OVER THE WATCH AREA
RANGES FROM 1.5 TO 2.25 INCHES IN 1 HOUR AND 1.8-2.5 INCHES IN 3
HOURS. THOSE PRECIPITATION RATES ARE WELL WITHIN REACH GIVEN
THIS SETUP.
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS MORE LIMITED. THE MODEST INSTABILITY
AND MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MY AREA.
THE EXISTENCE OF THE MCS/MCV COMBINATION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
DISPLACE THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND FOR
TONIGHT, WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OUT
OF OUR AREA. THESE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
DECREASES RAPIDLY AS STORMS WEAKEN.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LOITER OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST TO OUR SOUTH WHICH MAY PROPAGATE
EASTWARD INTO THE HAYWARD AND PHILLIPS AREAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE HEAVY
RAIN TONIGHT OCCURS, THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING
OVER THOSE AREAS. TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY TREND COOLER FOR
WEDNESDAY DUE IN PART TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL ALLOW A WEAK LAKE BREEZE TO PROPAGATE WELL INLAND KEEPING
TEMPS COOLER. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S NORTH
AND SOUTH TO THE LOW TO UPPER 70S FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO
NW WI AND SHORELINE AREAS OF THE ARROWHEAD.
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WE WILL ENTER A PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES DWINDLE AS ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES. UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY THETA-E ADVECTION TO BRING A RETURN
OF UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AS
WELL. THE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS WILL TREND HIGHER
STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AT LEAST. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE SEEN AROUND THE NORTHLAND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO TONIGHT, FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
AFFECT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR INL. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
TO IFR OR LOWER AT DLH, HIB, AND HYR WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT BRD.
IFR STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT HYR. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER DAYBREAK.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
OVER THE LAKE THIS MORNING AND CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT
ALONG THE SHORELINES EITHER THIS AFTERNOON. DENSE MARINE FOG MAY
FORM TONIGHT FOR THE TWIN PORTS TO SOUTH SHORE. ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED IN TIME FOR THIS POSSIBLE DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF INTERIOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
PRICE COUNTY AND ADJACENT AREAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UP TO
0.10-0.15" WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. RH VALUES ARE STILL FORECAST TO VARY WIDELY
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH READINGS OF 30-45% ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE IRON RANGE INTO THE ARROWHEAD WITH VALUES ABOVE 50%
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
A DRY AND WARMING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SETUP FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF VERY LOW SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN FAR NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 80S THURSDAY- SATURDAY
WITH 90S IN THE MIX BY SUNDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST
DAY IN TERMS OF RH WITH VALUES OF 25-35% ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
IRON RANGE INTO THE ARROWHEAD WITH VALUES OF 35 TO 45%
ELSEWHERE. INCREASING HUMIDITY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
KEEP MINIMUM VALUES AT AROUND 35% OR ABOVE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
UNDER 15 MPH INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH BY
SUNDAY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...NLY
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...NLY
FIRE WEATHER...BJH
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