569
FXUS63 KDLH 091723
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1223 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A NOTABLE WARM UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE STRONG
WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
- MINIMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
A FAIRLY UNREMARKABLE SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE FOR TODAY, AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION. WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR, WHICH SHOULD
BURN OFF WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.
FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. WE
COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY MORNING WITH THIS DISTURBANCE, IF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN THE
DAKOTAS CAN HOLD ITSELF TOGETHER. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY EXPECTED SOME
WIDESPREAD SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAY, PEAKING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE 1000-2000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE WITH 30-40KTS OF BULK SHEAR. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP,
THERE'S A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THEM COULD BE ON THE SPUNKIER SIDE FOR
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE MN BRINGING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, A QUICK
DOWNPOUR, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY FRIDAY.
AS THAT DISTURBANCE KEEPING TRUCKING SOUTH AND EAST, IT MAY BE ABLE
TO SPUR A LITTLE SHOWERY ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FOR THE
NORTH SHORE AND NW WI, BUT CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW (15-25%) AT THIS
TIME.
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
ROBUST UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH
SHOULD DRIVE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY UP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH
SEVERAL DAYS OF WIDESPREAD 90S POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
COULD COME ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. WITH THIS SET-UP, ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WOULD LIKELY STEM FROM RIDGE-RUNNING DISTURBANCES THAT CAN BEND THE
FLOW A BIT AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO PUSH A
DISTURBANCE THROUGH. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR THAT WOULD BE SOMETIME EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, MAYBE
IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME, BUT CONFIDENCE, AND POPS, ARE
LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, MAINLY AT DLH AND HYR. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
A LIGHT ONSHORE LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH SOME AFTERNOON
GUSTS OF 10-15 KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR THE TWIN PORTS AND APOSTLE ISLANDS
TO CHEQUAMEGON BAY. WHILE NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED, SMALL CRAFT
USERS SHOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO HAVE A LITTLE NORTHEAST CHOP TO WORK
WITH (LESS THAN 1 FOOT) THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD DIE DOWN
QUICKLY INTO THE EVENING. WIDESPREAD MARINE DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT IT
SHOULD PULL BACK AWAY FROM THE COASTS INTO THE OPEN WATER DURING THE
DAY. IT MAY RETURN ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A
MOSTLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
FRIDAY, WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO SOME LESS-THAN-ONE-FOOT CHOP
IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT NOTHING HAZARDOUS. SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD BECOME STRONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, A
QUICK DOWNPOUR, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY, BUT
LESS LIKELY THAN FRIDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION.
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARDS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 80S, MAKING FOR A DRY DAY TODAY. AFTERNOON RH OF 25-40% IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND, WITH SOME LOCALLY ESPECIALLY DRY
SPOTS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER DROPPING BELOW 25%. FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURN WITH SOME GUSTS OF 10-15MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD BRING WITH IT SOME IMPROVED HUMIDITY (AFTERNOON RH 35-
50%) AND A 20-40% CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND, MOST LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT, A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS TO A COUPLE TENTHS. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S REMAIN, SO AFTERNOON RH SHOULD
FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY DROP INTO THE 35-45% RANGE, WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SOME PARTICULARLY DRY SPOTS TO REACH 30%. SOME BREEZIER SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEVENS
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...LEVENS
FIRE WEATHER...LEVENS
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