497
FXUS63 KDLH 100804
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
304 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY BEFORE A WARM UP THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES AND/OR EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
SATURDAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
BE STRONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, MOST LIKELY IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA.
- MINIMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A LITTLE PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF THIS MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER CLASSIC JULY SUMMER DAY ARRIVES WITH A LITTLE MORE HEAT,
HUMIDITY, AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE SHOULD FIND
OURSELVES LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TODAY, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY START TO PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES
AND DEWPOINTS UP. EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING INTO THE 60S. A RESERVOIR OF DECENT
INSTABILITY SHOULD BUILD IN THE DAKOTAS AND MOVE INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE DAY, ALONG WITH ~30 KNOTS OF BULK
SHEAR. AS A COLD FRONT FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH ASSISTED
BY SOME PASSING 500MB VORT MAXES PUSHES INTO THE AREA, RAIN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE, BUT NOT PROMISED. IF THEY
DO OCCUR, A FEW SPUNKIER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MOSTLY FOR THE
BRAINERD LAKES TO GRAND RAPIDS AREA WHERE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, A QUICK
DOWNPOUR, AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, MORE POP-UP GARDEN-
VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED.
SATURDAY, THE SAME UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES AS A CUT-OFF UPPER
LEVEL HIGH MARCHES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, PUTTING US ALONG THE EDGE
OF THAT RIDGE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RIDGE-RUNNING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY, WHICH COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HERE AGAIN WE HAVE A DECENT INSTABILITY RESERVOIR TO
WORK WITH BUT SHEAR IS LACKING. STORMS, IF THEY OCCUR, WOULD BE POP-
UP IN NATURE AND LACKING IN STRUCTURE, SO THEY WOULD PROBABLY
CHAOTICALLY FOLLOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR OTHER MESO- TO MICRO-SCALE
FORCING UNTIL THEIR SYNOPTIC FORCING AND INSTABILITY WANE THROUGH
THE EVENING. WITH PWATS OVER 1.5" ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SATURDAY
WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PUTTING DOWN SOME GOOD DOWNPOURS WHEREVER THEY
POP UP ALONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AS THE CORES OF THOSE STORMS
COLLAPSE.
ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY TODAY AND
TOMORROW. WHILE MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE AND
SHOWERS WIDELY SCATTERED, QUICK THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
INTENSIFICATION ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD BE HAZARDOUS FOR THOSE
WITHOUT SHELTER.
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
ROBUST UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST WHICH SHOULD DRIVE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY UP FURTHER ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND. SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF THIS HEAT WITH SOME
POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM IN THOSE VALUES, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS WHICH COULD KEEP US SLIGHTLY
COOLER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WE ARE LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S. SOME GUIDANCE EVEN WANTS TO PUSH SOME AREAS ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER 100F. OUR FORECAST WET BULB GLOBE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80-85 RANGE ON BOTH DAYS. A HEAT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AND WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORIES AND/OR
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN? SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE PRETTY WELL
LOCKED INTO THE HIGH PRESSURE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES PUSHED TO
THE NORTH OF US. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO FLATTEN AND HAVE TO FIGHT AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER HUDSON BAY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK,
SO PERHAPS SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MIGHT BE ABLE TO BRING US SOME
RAINFALL THEN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THAT KIND OF SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG COULD AFFECT DLH AND HYR THROUGH SUNRISE. AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY, MOST LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW, SO
HAVE GONE WITH MOSTLY VCSH GROUPS DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME RANGE.
CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR BRD, SO HAVE ADDED AN ACTUAL SHRA
GROUP THERE IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD
COME TO AN END THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A LIGHT ONSHORE LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY, WITH SOME
AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 10-15 KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR THE TWIN PORTS AND
APOSTLE ISLANDS TO CHEQUAMEGON BAY. WHILE NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED,
SMALL CRAFT USERS SHOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO HAVE A LITTLE NORTHEAST
CHOP TO WORK WITH (UP TO AROUND 1 FOOT) THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD
DIE DOWN QUICKLY INTO THE EVENING. WIDESPREAD MARINE DENSE FOG IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT IT SHOULD PULL BACK AWAY FROM THE COASTS INTO THE OPEN WATER
DURING THE DAY. IT MAY RETURN ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD BECOME STRONG WITH
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, A QUICK DOWNPOUR, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY. WINDS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AND MOSTLY RESEMBLE A LAKE BREEZE, WITH A TENDENCY TO TURN
SOUTHERLY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR THE GRAND PORTAGE TO ISLE ROYALE
AREA AS THE ONSHORE WIND DIRECTION IS SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES POTENTIALLY NEEDED, MOST LIKELY ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE AND OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 10-
15MPH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING DEWPOINTS TODAY, WHICH
SHOULD BRING WITH IT SOME IMPROVED HUMIDITY (AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH 35-
50%) AND A 20-40% CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND, MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT, A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS TO A COUPLE TENTHS UNLESS RIGHT UNDER A THUNDERSTORM IN
WHICH CASE VERY LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE 0.25-0.50". ANOTHER ROUND
OF WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S TO LOW 70S ARE ALSO EXPECTED, SO AFTERNOON RH SHOULD FAIRLY
CONSISTENTLY DROP INTO THE 35-45% RANGE, WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME
PARTICULARLY DRY SPOTS TO REACH 30%. THOSE LOWEST RHS ARE MOST
LIKELY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AND THE LEAST RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE LAST MONTH,
WHICH PREDISPOSES THE AREA TO SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. SOME
BREEZIER SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
140>148-150.
DISCUSSION...LEVENS
AVIATION...LEVENS
MARINE...LEVENS
FIRE WEATHER...LEVENS
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