575
FXUS63 KDLH 102312
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
612 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BECOMING VERY HOT AND MUGGY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MOST DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAT
ADVISORIES AND EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING AND ON
SATURDAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
COULD BE STRONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, MOST
LIKELY IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA.
- MINIMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE LACK OF
RAIN AND FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH THE VERY
HOT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY COULD LEAD TO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
REST OF TODAY - TONIGHT:
A DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON ALONGSIDE
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS IMMEDIATELY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST
ONTARIO TODAY WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL/FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. FORCING
FROM THIS FRONT AND ALOFT SHOULD BE RATHER NEBULOUS AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE RISING ALOFT. THIS SETS THE STAGE OF A LOW
CONFIDENCE SCENARIO FOR ISOLATED TO VERY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING DUE TO
THE WEAK FORCING, AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 10-35% RANGE TO
REFLECT THIS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP WOULD BE
IN THE BRAINERD LAKES/IRON RANGE/BOUNDARY WATERS AREAS. IF
STORMS DEVELOP, A COUPLE OF THEM COULD BECOME STRONG WITH SMALL
HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND A QUICK DOWNPOUR IN THE BRAINERD LAKES TO
GRAND RAPIDS WHERE 20-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND BETTER MLCAPE
OF 500-1500 J/KG DEVELOPS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS WITH EASTWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT, SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP FARTHER EAST
AND NORTHEAST ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG.
SATURDAY:
A PROMINENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS ON
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. WE SEE A SIMILAR SITUATION TO TODAY DEVELOP ON SATURDAY
REGARDING ISOLATED TO VERY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL MID/LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOME VERY
WEAK, EMBEDDED FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. AN EVEN MORE
ROBUST POOL OF MLCAPE (1000-2500 J/KG) IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, BUT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE AT 15-20 KT. THEREFORE,
MOST STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE GARDEN-VARIETY POP-UP STORMS,
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE BEING ABLE TO PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS IN THEIR SHORT
LIFESPANS.
THE APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PUMPING IN
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL MAKE SATURDAY FEEL HOT
AND MUGGY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES, HOTTEST IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, ALONG WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WET BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURES
(WBGTS) ALSO RISE INTO THE 79-83F RANGE. GIVEN THE COMBINATION
OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY AND HIGHER WBGTS, A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERLAP OF HOTTEST
AND MOST HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CAN'T RULE OUT EXPANSION
OF THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT AS HIGH THERE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
SUNDAY - TUESDAY
FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST, LARGELY KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND INTRODUCING EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHLAND. WE ARE LOOKING AT HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH OF THESE DAYS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S,
WITH SOME POCKETS OF UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS POSSIBLE IN FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THESE TEMPERATURES
COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD DAILY HIGHS AND WARM LOWS; SEE
THE "CLIMATE" SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EACH DAY. DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, AND SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S ON TUESDAY
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WBGTS OF 80-85F
ARE ALSO FORECAST EACH DAY, PEAKING IN THE LATE MORNINGS THROUGH
EARLY EVENINGS. GIVEN THIS DANGEROUS HEAT, AN EXTREME HEAT
WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXTREME HEAT WATCHES
LIKELY TO BE NEEDED ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ONLY DIP INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S EACH NIGHT IN THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, SO LIMITED RECOVERY AND RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT
ACCESS TO PROPER COOLING OR AIR CONDITIONING.
AS OF NOW PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE MINIMAL TO ZERO (10% CHANCE OR LESS FOR RAIN) AS
THE BETTER FORCING IS FAVORED TO BE NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THEREFORE, SEVERAL DAYS WITH THIS HEAT AND LACK OF RAIN,
FAIRLY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (35-50% ON SUNDAY AND
25-45% ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY), AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
FOR THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN THE BOUNDARY WATERS AND FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE THE LOWEST.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS FOR THIS PERIOD CLOSELY
REGARDING ANY NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK:
THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN MID-RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FOR THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD DURING
THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD OFFER A
SLIGHT REPRIEVE TO THE HOTTEST AND MOST HUMID CONDITIONS IN THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND SOME LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES (10-40%)
SHOULD THAT COME TO FRUITION AND ALLOW A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS LOWER FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES OR LESS HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WEST OF OUR REGION IN THAT TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DIURNAL CUMULUS
WILL FADE THIS EVENING AND RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN ISOLATED STORM,
BUT CHANCES LOOK TO BE AROUND 15-20%. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL SWITCH TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
EAST TO NORTHEAST MARINE WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND BECOME CALM TONIGHT WITH WAVES LESS
THAN 1 FT. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG POTENTIAL AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE TO
TWIN PORTS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE IN
STORE FOR SATURDAY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, BUT COULD BE
SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT NEAR GRAND PORTAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS BECOME STRONGER OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE NEAR GRAND PORTAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AND FOR THE OUTER APOSTLES AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT COULD LEAD TO THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY BECOMING CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH DIPS TO 35-50%,
RECOVERING ABOVE 90% TONIGHT. THERE IS A 10-35% CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
NORTHLAND THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS LOW. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
LIGHT, A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO A COUPLE TENTHS UNLESS RIGHT
UNDER A THUNDERSTORM IN WHICH CASE VERY LOCALIZED AREAS COULD
SEE 0.25-0.50".
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POP-UP RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING, BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS ASIDE FROM DIRECTLY UNDER A
THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES BECOME HOT THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR
MOST IN THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME, BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS, SO AFTERNOON RH
SHOULD FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY DROP INTO THE 30-45% RANGE, WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SOME PARTICULARLY DRY SPOTS TO REACH 25% IN THE
BOUNDARY WATERS AND FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AND THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST MONTH. THIS COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, FAIRLY LOW MIN RH, AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY COULD SET THE STAGE FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOME LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES (10-40%)
COULD RETURN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS POINT AND SUBSTANTIAL, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE
NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW IS A LIST
OF FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SITES
THAT ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH OR EXCEED DAILY RECORDS. THE
DAILY RECORDS AND YEAR(S) THAT THEY OCCURRED ARE ALSO LISTED.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FORECAST RECORD
JULY 11
KHIB: 86 89 (1970 AND 1966)
JULY 12
KINL: 96 96 (1921)
KHIB: 92 91 (1969 AND 1966)
JULY 13
KINL: 98 93 (1983)
KHIB: 94 92 (1983)
JULY 14
KASX: 94 94 (1980 AND 1969)
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
FORECAST RECORD
JULY 12
KINL: 66 69 (1898)
KHIB: 64 67 (1942)
JULY 13
KINL: 70 69 (2013 AND 1997)
KHIB: 66 67 (1997 AND 1943)
JULY 14
KINL: 70 70 (1983)
KBRD: 69 72 (1901)
KHIB: 67 69 (1995)
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018-019-025-026-035-037.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-035-037.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
FIRE WEATHER...ROTHSTEIN
CLIMATE...ROTHSTEIN
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