947
FXUS63 KDLH 111724
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HEAT ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT. EVEN HOTTER AND MORE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH EXTREME HEAT WATCHES IN EFFECT.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND NON SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE ARROWHEAD AND THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR THE OTHER PARTS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND THE SOUTH SHORE.
- MINIMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE LACK OF
RAIN AND FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH THE VERY
HOT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY COULD LEAD TO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THIS EARLY MORNING FORECAST REMAINS
TODAY BEGINNING THE STRETCH OF VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS,
THE EXTREME HEAT THAT IS EXPECTED AT LEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
POTENTIALLY ALSO TUESDAY, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT IS IN EFFECT LATE MORNING TO LATE EVENING
TODAY WAS EXPANDED IN AREA INTO THE BRAINERD LAKES TO FAR
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AS THE DEWPOINTS SURGE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING THE LOW TO MID-90S. THESE CONDITIONS AID IN
CREATING A MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR HEATRISK IN THE ADVISORY
AREA AT THE ONSET OF THIS HEAT WAVE.
THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH COVERING THE FORECAST HOTTEST AND
MUGGIEST TIME PERIOD OF THIS HEAT WAVE STARTING SUNDAY LATE
EVENING WAS EXTENDED IN TIME NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
COVERING ALL MONDAY DAYTIME. THE AREA WAS ALSO EXPANDED IN
COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE ALONGSIDE THE CURRENT
COVERAGE OF MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. VERY LITTLE TO NO
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF HEAT CRITERIA AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS ALSO BEING
MONDAY CAUSED THE EXTENSION IN TIME AND EXPANSION IN AREA.
THE WIND GUST FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY TRENDED UPWARD WITH
THE INCLUSION OF UPPER-END PERCENTILE GUIDANCE OF DAYTIME GUSTS
FOR FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE FORECAST-TO-BE WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH ARE ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 25-30% AND DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPPER-90S TO 100 F. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED IN TIME FOR THESE POSSIBLE NEAR-CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON
RANGE. A FEW AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED NON SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BRING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF VERY LOCALIZED RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
THIS GENERAL AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
REST OF TODAY - TONIGHT:
A DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON ALONGSIDE
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS IMMEDIATELY
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST
ONTARIO TODAY WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL/FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. FORCING
FROM THIS FRONT AND ALOFT SHOULD BE RATHER NEBULOUS AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE RISING ALOFT. THIS SETS THE STAGE OF A LOW
CONFIDENCE SCENARIO FOR ISOLATED TO VERY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING DUE TO
THE WEAK FORCING, AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 10-35% RANGE TO
REFLECT THIS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP WOULD BE
IN THE BRAINERD LAKES/IRON RANGE/BOUNDARY WATERS AREAS. IF
STORMS DEVELOP, A COUPLE OF THEM COULD BECOME STRONG WITH SMALL
HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND A QUICK DOWNPOUR IN THE BRAINERD LAKES TO
GRAND RAPIDS WHERE 20-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND BETTER MLCAPE
OF 500-1500 J/KG DEVELOPS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS WITH EASTWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT, SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP FARTHER EAST
AND NORTHEAST ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG.
SATURDAY:
A PROMINENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS ON
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. WE SEE A SIMILAR SITUATION TO TODAY DEVELOP ON SATURDAY
REGARDING ISOLATED TO VERY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL MID/LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOME VERY
WEAK, EMBEDDED FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. AN EVEN MORE
ROBUST POOL OF MLCAPE (1000-2500 J/KG) IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, BUT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE AT 15-20 KT. THEREFORE,
MOST STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE GARDEN-VARIETY POP-UP STORMS,
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE BEING ABLE TO PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS IN THEIR SHORT
LIFESPANS.
THE APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PUMPING IN
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL MAKE SATURDAY FEEL HOT
AND MUGGY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES, HOTTEST IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, ALONG WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WET BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURES
(WBGTS) ALSO RISE INTO THE 79-83F RANGE. GIVEN THE COMBINATION
OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY AND HIGHER WBGTS, A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERLAP OF HOTTEST
AND MOST HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CAN'T RULE OUT EXPANSION
OF THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT AS HIGH THERE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
SUNDAY - TUESDAY
FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE/HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST, LARGELY KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND INTRODUCING EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHLAND. WE ARE LOOKING AT HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH OF THESE DAYS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S,
WITH SOME POCKETS OF UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS POSSIBLE IN FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THESE TEMPERATURES
COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD DAILY HIGHS AND WARM LOWS; SEE
THE "CLIMATE" SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EACH DAY. DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, AND SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S ON TUESDAY
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WBGTS OF 80-85F
ARE ALSO FORECAST EACH DAY, PEAKING IN THE LATE MORNINGS THROUGH
EARLY EVENINGS. GIVEN THIS DANGEROUS HEAT, AN EXTREME HEAT
WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXTREME HEAT WATCHES
LIKELY TO BE NEEDED ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ONLY DIP INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S EACH NIGHT IN THE
EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, SO LIMITED RECOVERY AND RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT
ACCESS TO PROPER COOLING OR AIR CONDITIONING.
AS OF NOW PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE MINIMAL TO ZERO (10% CHANCE OR LESS FOR RAIN) AS
THE BETTER FORCING IS FAVORED TO BE NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THEREFORE, SEVERAL DAYS WITH THIS HEAT AND LACK OF RAIN,
FAIRLY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (35-50% ON SUNDAY AND
25-45% ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY), AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
FOR THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN THE BOUNDARY WATERS AND FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE THE LOWEST.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS FOR THIS PERIOD CLOSELY
REGARDING ANY NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK:
THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN MID-RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FOR THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD DURING
THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD OFFER A
SLIGHT REPRIEVE TO THE HOTTEST AND MOST HUMID CONDITIONS IN THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND SOME LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES (10-40%)
SHOULD THAT COME TO FRUITION AND ALLOW A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS LOWER FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES OR LESS HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WEST OF OUR REGION IN THAT TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LOWERED, SO
HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION AT DLH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS KEEPS MINIMAL CONCERNS FOR
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON THE WESTERN WATERS TODAY. WINDS FURTHER
INCREASE THOUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY WITH GUSTS FORECAST
AROUND 25 KNOTS OFFSHORE OF GRAND PORTAGE. A SINGLE ZONE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN TIME FOR GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND
PORTAGE FOR THOSE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST TO LAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
HOT AND MUGGY WEATHER SETS UP TODAY AND BECOMES EVEN HOTTER FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN MOST DISTRICTS. HEAT ADVISORIES, FOR TODAY,
AND EXTREME HEAT WATCHES, FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, ARE IN
EFFECT DUE TO THESE CONDITIONS. EXPECT SLOWLY INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY TO GREATLY PICK UP IN FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THIS HOT,
RELATIVELY DRY (MINRHS 27-37% ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE)
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 MPH ARE LIKELY
AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH FORECAST. A WEAK COOL FRONT SWITCHES WINDS
TO WESTERLY AND DECREASES SLOWLY TUESDAY. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED IN TIME FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY BEYOND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS TODAY IN THE ARROWHEAD AND TONIGHT FIRST IN THE
BORDERLANDS THEN TOWARDS THE SOUTH SHORE BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT SELECT CLIMATE SITES IN
THE NORTHLAND. THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE RECORD AND YEAR IT WAS
OBSERVED ARE IN THE FIRST COLUMN, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURE IN THE SECOND COLUMN.
SITE IDENTIFIERS AND NAMES
KINL: INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA (MEASURED AT INT'L FALLS AIRPORT)
KHIB: HIBBING AREA (MEASURED AT RANGE REGIONAL AIRPORT)
KBRD: BRAINERD AREA (MEASURED AT BRAINERD REGIONAL AIRPORT)
KASX: ASHLAND AREA (MEASURED AT JFK MEMORIAL AIRPORT)
RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 11: FORECAST
KINL: 94/1921 92
KHIB: 89/1970 87
JULY 12:
KINL: 96/1921 99
KHIB: 91/1969 94
JULY 13:
KINL: 93/1983 99
KHIB: 92/1983 94
JULY 14:
KASX: 94/1980 94
RECORD DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 12: FORECAST
KINL: 69/1898 69
KHIB: 67/1942 66
KASX: 67/2018 65
JULY 13:
KINL: 69/2013 71
KBRD: 73/1936 70
KHIB: 67/1997 68
KASX: 73/1954 70
JULY 14:
KINL: 70/1983 71
KBRD: 72/1901 70
KHIB: 69/1995 69
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018-
019-025-026-033>038.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-035-037.
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001-002-006-
007.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR WIZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...NLY
DISCUSSION...ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...NLY
FIRE WEATHER...NLY
CLIMATE...NLY
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