498
FXUS63 KDLH 111904
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
204 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO TUESDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE BORDERLANDS.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
MINIMAL RAINFALL CHANCES. THE HEAT AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY LEAD
TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE SEEN ON RADAR EARLIER ACROSS WESTERN
KOOCHICHING COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S
ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH 70S AND LOWER
80S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. MAINLY DRY AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
BORDERLANDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW WITH WEAK FORCING IN PLACE. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH CAPE AROUND
2000-3000 J/KG IN THIS AREA. WITH AIR TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S, THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE MECHANISM
FOR STORMS. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH WINDS LIKELY BEING DRIVEN BY COLLAPSING CORES.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT. WEAK FORCING CONTINUES TO BE AN
ISSUE AND LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS.
SOME CAMS HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT THE 12Z
RUNS ARE LESS OPTIMISTIC THAN THE 00Z RUNS. CAMS TEND TO STRUGGLE IN
WEAKLY FORCED REGIMES, SO THE DRIER ROUTE SEEMS MORE LIKELY WITH A
LACK OF A DEFINED FORCING MECHANISM.
DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE 90S OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND 70S LEADING TO HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
WITH WIDESPREAD WET BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 83F AND
HEAT RISK IN THE MAJOR CATEGORY, THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED AND EXPANDED TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH RELIEF
FOR THE HEAT ASIDE FROM LOCATIONS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO LAKE
SUPERIOR. HAVE KEPT PRICE OUT OF THE WARNING FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER
FORECAST WBGTS AND PLACED THEM IN AN ADVISORY, BUT THEY MAY NEED TO
BE ADDED FOR MONDAY. LITTLE RELIEF IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH CONTINUED MUGGY
CONDITIONS.
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY WATERS INTO THE ARROWHEAD SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH IN THIS AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 25-30% RANGE, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED WITH THESE CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON, BUT THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY FROM
DEVELOPING WITH CAPPING ALOFT.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE, BUT IT WILL PUSH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL AGAIN REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HEAT HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE LAKE BREEZE
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S
AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE LAKE.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S DURING THIS TIME, SO
IT WILL FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY LESS MUGGY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING PERIODIC WAVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THIS TIME AND
MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT NO LARGE ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LOWERED, SO
HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION AT DLH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS, ASIDE FROM NEAR GRAND PORTAGE WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5
TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FROM GRAND
MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE. HEADING INTO MONDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NEAR
GRAND PORTAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THAT
ZONE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
HOT AND MUGGY WEATHER SETS UP TODAY AND BECOMES EVEN HOTTER FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN MOST DISTRICTS. HEAT ADVISORIES, FOR TODAY,
AND EXTREME HEAT WATCHES, FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, ARE IN
EFFECT DUE TO THESE CONDITIONS. EXPECT SLOWLY INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY TO GREATLY PICK UP IN FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THIS HOT,
RELATIVELY DRY (MINRHS 27-37% ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE)
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 MPH ARE LIKELY
AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH FORECAST. A WEAK COOL FRONT SWITCHES WINDS
TO WESTERLY AND DECREASES SLOWLY TUESDAY. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED IN TIME FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY BEYOND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS TODAY IN THE ARROWHEAD AND TONIGHT FIRST IN THE
BORDERLANDS THEN TOWARDS THE SOUTH SHORE BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT SELECT CLIMATE SITES IN
THE NORTHLAND. THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE RECORD AND YEAR IT WAS
OBSERVED ARE IN THE FIRST COLUMN, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURE IN THE SECOND COLUMN.
SITE IDENTIFIERS AND NAMES
KINL: INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA (MEASURED AT INT'L FALLS AIRPORT)
KHIB: HIBBING AREA (MEASURED AT RANGE REGIONAL AIRPORT)
KBRD: BRAINERD AREA (MEASURED AT BRAINERD REGIONAL AIRPORT)
KASX: ASHLAND AREA (MEASURED AT JFK MEMORIAL AIRPORT)
RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 11: FORECAST
KINL: 94/1921 92
KHIB: 89/1970 87
JULY 12:
KINL: 96/1921 98
KHIB: 91/1969 95
JULY 13:
KINL: 93/1983 100
KHIB: 92/1983 96
JULY 14:
KASX: 94/1980 95
RECORD DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 12: FORECAST
KINL: 69/1898 69
KHIB: 67/1942 67
KASX: 67/2018 66
JULY 13:
KINL: 69/2013 72
KBRD: 73/1936 71
KHIB: 67/1997 70
KASX: 73/1954 71
JULY 14:
KINL: 70/1983 70
KBRD: 72/1901 71
KHIB: 69/1995 70
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018-
019-025-026-033>038.
WI...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
WIZ001>004-006>008.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001-002-006-
007.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR WIZ009.
MARINE...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ142.
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH
FIRE WEATHER...NLY
CLIMATE...BJH
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