158
FXUS63 KDLH 121117
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
617 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT: HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY AREAWIDE EXCEPT PRICE COUNTY WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS: VERY LITTLE RAINFALL CHANCES THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. ONGOING HEAT AND THOSE DRY CONDITIONS COMBINE
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND FAIRLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO
LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY
AND MONDAY, POTENTIALLY TUESDAY. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT TODAY AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION REMAINS WELL-NORTH OF THE BORDERLANDS EARLY
THIS MORNING AS A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN NORTH
OF SUPERIOR IN ONTARIO RIGHT NOW. THE 15 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS FOR AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED RAIN SHOWER
STILL BREAKING THE CAP ALOFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND LATER POST-DAWN ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.
BEING WELL-UNDER THE WARM SECTOR AT THIS POINT, ONGOING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-70S ARE ONLY FORECAST
TO DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO THE SUNRISE HOURS SUNDAY
MORNING. A QUICK WARM UP EARLY THIS MORNING LEADS TO FORECAST
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 90 F BY 10 AM THIS MORNING AND ONLY
CONTINUING TO INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON OF COURSE.
MOST ALL HEAT HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING EXCEPT AN EXTENSION IN TIME FOR THE PRICE COUNTY HEAT
ADVISORY. THAT ADVISORY NOW ENDS MONDAY EVENING ALONGSIDE THE
NEAR- AREAWIDE EXTREME HEAT WARNING COVERING ALL OTHER NORTHLAND
AREAS TODAY AND MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER-WISE TODAY, THERE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TODAY GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
FORECAST TO DROP TO 27-35% ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE.
THESE ARE ALL OCCURRING IN AN AREA UNDER ABNORMALLY DRY TO
SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT HAVE SEEN LITTLE RAINFALL THE
LAST FEW WEEKS. GIVEN THE AT-LEAST ELEVATED TO POCKETS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST TODAY, WITH FUELS
GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY LAND MANAGEMENT PARTNERS, THE PREVIOUS FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS UPGRADED
THIS MORNING TO A RED FLAG WARNING. THIS WARNING ONLY COVERS THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME PERIOD FOR THE IRON RANGE
NORTHWARD.
FOR MONDAY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, THERE IS EVEN HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
COMPARED TO TODAY. THIS STEMS FROM A MORE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT
AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MOVE IN OVERHEAD AND MIX DOWN
TO 20-30 MPH WIND GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SETUP
FAVORS SLIGHTLY LOWER MINRHS THEN MONDAY TOO FOR 22-35% ALONG
AND NORTH OF US HWY 2, BUT LOWEST IN THE BORDERLANDS. THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COVERING AN AREA
OF NORTHERN CASS TO SOUTHERN ITASCA TO CARLTON COUNTY AND ALL
AREAS NORTHWARD REMAINS IN EFFECT AND HAS AN EVEN HIGHER CHANCE
OF SEEING MORE TRADITIONAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAN
THOSE OF TODAY. THE MAIN STORY BEING THAT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO BE CRITICAL TODAY FOR FIRE WEATHER, AND EVEN MORE CRITICAL ON
MONDAY....POTENTIALLY ALSO TUESDAY AS THESE LAST FEW DAYS OF HOT
TEMPERATURES PERSIST EVEN UNDER SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS THAT DAY.
A WEAK AND DRY COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND BRINGS A DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS BEHIND
IT. THIS WILL HELP TO ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE HEATRISK BY TUESDAY
PM FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
FUTURE EXTENSIONS IN TIME OF THE ONGOING HEAT WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED TO ALSO COVER HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THAT ARE LIKELY
STILL ON TUESDAY FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL MN AND ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AREA. OTHER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND, NAMELY
THE BRAINERD LAKES TO TWIN PORTS AREA, MAY ALSO SEE A NEED OF
SOME SORT OF HEAT HEADLINE INTO TUESDAY DAYTIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE SEEN ON RADAR EARLIER ACROSS WESTERN
KOOCHICHING COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S
ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH 70S AND LOWER
80S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. MAINLY DRY AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
BORDERLANDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW WITH WEAK FORCING IN PLACE. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH CAPE AROUND
2000-3000 J/KG IN THIS AREA. WITH AIR TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S, THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE MECHANISM
FOR STORMS. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH WINDS LIKELY BEING DRIVEN BY COLLAPSING CORES.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, THERE ARE SOME HINTS FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT. WEAK FORCING CONTINUES TO BE AN
ISSUE AND LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS.
SOME CAMS HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT THE 12Z
RUNS ARE LESS OPTIMISTIC THAN THE 00Z RUNS. CAMS TEND TO STRUGGLE IN
WEAKLY FORCED REGIMES, SO THE DRIER ROUTE SEEMS MORE LIKELY WITH A
LACK OF A DEFINED FORCING MECHANISM.
DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE 90S OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND 70S LEADING TO HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.
WITH WIDESPREAD WET BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 83F AND
HEAT RISK IN THE MAJOR CATEGORY, THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED AND EXPANDED TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH RELIEF
FOR THE HEAT ASIDE FROM LOCATIONS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO LAKE
SUPERIOR. HAVE KEPT PRICE OUT OF THE WARNING FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER
FORECAST WBGTS AND PLACED THEM IN AN ADVISORY, BUT THEY MAY NEED TO
BE ADDED FOR MONDAY. LITTLE RELIEF IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH LOW IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WITH CONTINUED MUGGY
CONDITIONS.
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY WATERS INTO THE ARROWHEAD SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH IN THIS AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 25-30% RANGE, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED WITH THESE CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON, BUT THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY KEEP ACTIVITY FROM
DEVELOPING WITH CAPPING ALOFT. SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH AND HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE POSSIBLE WITH SUFFICIENT
SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE, BUT IT WILL PUSH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL AGAIN REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HEAT HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE THE LAKE BREEZE
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S
AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 70S AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE LAKE.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S DURING THIS TIME, SO
IT WILL FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY LESS MUGGY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING PERIODIC WAVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THIS TIME AND
MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT NO LARGE ORGANIZED
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS
SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KNOTS GUST 15-25 KNOTS TODAY, WITH MIXING
PREVAILING AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT FOR CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THIS WILL BE A TWO DAY PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE WESTERN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TODAY ARE MOST
LIKELY IN FAR WESTERN APOSTLE ISLANDS AND OFFSHORE OF GRAND
PORTAGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR
THOSE GENERAL AREAS ENDING LATE THIS EVENING. WAVES MAY LINGER
AROUND 3-4 FEET TONIGHT OFFSHORE OF GRAND PORTAGE SO THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF NEEDING AN EXTENSION IN TIME OF THAT GRAND
MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE ZONE ADVISORY RUNNING THROUGH TONIGHT
AND MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER DAY OF EVEN STRONGER WINDS GUSTING
TO 30 KNOTS IS LIKELY MONDAY AND ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEEDED IN TIME FOR SIMILAR, IF NOT EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD,
NEARSHORE ZONES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THE HOT TEMPERATURES SET UP TODAY AND LAST INTO MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY GUSTING 20 TO 25
MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP TO 27-35% ALOND
AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE. THESE ARE ALL OCCURRING IN AN AREA
UNDER ABNORMALLY DRY TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT HAVE SEEN
LITTLE RAINFALL THE LAST FEW WEEKS. GIVEN THE AT-LEAST ELEVATED
TO POCKETS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST TODAY,
FROM FUELS GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY LAND MANAGEMENT PARTNERS, THE
PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS
UPGRADED THIS MORNING TO A RED FLAG WARNING. THIS WARNING ONLY
COVERS THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME PERIOD FOR THE IRON
RANGE NORTHWARD.
SOUTHWESTERLY 20 FOOT WINDS TONIGHT REMAIN MIXED OUT FROM 5-10
MPH WITH RECOVERY RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 60 TO 80% FOR THE RANGE
TO BORDERLANDS IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
FOR MONDAY, THERE IS EVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO TODAY. THIS STEMS
FROM A MORE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS MOVE IN OVERHEAD AND MIX DOWN TO 20-30 MPH WIND GUSTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SETUP FAVORS SLIGHTLY LOWER
MINRHS THEN MONDAY TOO FOR 22-35% ALONG AND NORTH OF US HWY 2,
BUT LOWEST IN THE BORDERLANDS. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COVERING AN AREA OF NORTHERN CASS TO
SOUTHERN ITASCA TO CARLTON COUNTY AND ALL AREAS NORTHWARD
REMAINS IN EFFECT AND HAS AN EVEN HIGHER CHANCE OF SEEING MORE
TRADITIONAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAN THOSE OF TODAY.
FOR MONDAY EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT, THE SOUTHWEST 20 FT WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN EVEN MORE MIXED OUT (20 FOOT SUSTAINED
7-10 MPH AND GUSTS STILL 15-20 MPH) THAN THOSE SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
A DRY AND WEAK COOL FRONT DROPS NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS TUESDAY MORNING, THOSE WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND
DECREASE TO BECOME 5 TO 10 MPH. RECOVERY RHS MONDAY NIGHT TREND
SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT STILL REMAIN
60-75% FOR THE AREAS IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
WHILE NOT VERY LIKELY (85% CHANCE OF NOT OCCURRING) A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO THE SOUTH SHORE
AND WI RTE 13 CORRIDOR BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WOULD BE SMALL HAIL, GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS TO 50 MPH AND A BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IF THESE STORMS DO EVEN FORM.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT SELECT CLIMATE SITES IN
THE NORTHLAND. THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE RECORD AND YEAR IT WAS
OBSERVED ARE IN THE FIRST COLUMN, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURE IN THE SECOND COLUMN.
SITE IDENTIFIERS AND NAMES
KDLH: DULUTH AREA (MEASURED AT DULUTH INT'L AIRPORT)
KINL: INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA (MEASURED AT INT'L FALLS AIRPORT)
KHIB: HIBBING AREA (MEASURED AT RANGE REGIONAL AIRPORT)
KBRD: BRAINERD AREA (MEASURED AT BRAINERD REGIONAL AIRPORT)
KASX: ASHLAND AREA (MEASURED AT JFK MEMORIAL AIRPORT)
RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 12: FORECAST
KINL: 96/1921 99
KHIB: 91/1969 95
JULY 13:
KINL: 93/1983 100
KHIB: 92/1983 96
JULY 14:
KASX: 94/1980 94
RECORD DAILY WARM LOW TEMPERATURES:
JULY 12: FORECAST
KDLH: 70/1892 68
KINL: 69/1898 70
KHIB: 67/1942 68
KASX: 67/2018 67
JULY 13:
KINL: 69/2013 74
KBRD: 73/1936 71
KHIB: 67/1997 70
KASX: 73/1954 72
JULY 14:
KDLH: 75/1983 72
KINL: 70/1983 71
KBRD: 72/1901 72
KHIB: 69/1995 70
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM CDT
TUESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-037.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ010>012-018-019.
WI...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM CDT
TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>008.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
WIZ009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ140-146-147-150.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM CDT
TUESDAY FOR LSZ142.
UPDATE...NLY
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...NLY
FIRE WEATHER...NLY
CLIMATE...NLY
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