464
FXUS63 KDLH 122332
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
632 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES LAST THROUGH MONDAY, AND HEAT HEADLINES ARE
IN EFFECT.
- THE HEAT COMBINED WITH DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IS LEADING TO
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THERE IS LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST TO EASE THE FIRE CONCERNS.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (30%) WILL BE LATE THIS
WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, DANGEROUSLY HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ENVELOPE THE NORTHLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE CLIMBING INTO THE 90S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA, WHILE A HEAT ADVISORY COVERS PRICE COUNTY. INITIAL
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED,
WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM IN THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S.
ON MONDAY, THE EXTREME HEAT CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
INCREASING INTO THE 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS. THIS INTENSE HEAT
WILL COMBINE WITH STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO
30 MPH AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO 22 PERCENT TO
CREATE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
ADDITIONALLY, MARINE FOG IS FORECAST TO LINGER OR RETURN ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR, WHICH MAY NECESSITATE FURTHER DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. A DRY, WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
DROP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
BRINGING A SHIFT TO WESTERLY WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS THAT
WILL BEGIN TO RELIEVE THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AREAS.
THE AREA WILL STAY LOCKED INTO THIS RIDGE PATTERN FOR THE
BETTER PART OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A BREAK FROM THE
INTENSE HUMIDITY AS TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH AREAS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL EXPERIENCE COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO AN INLAND-
MOVING LAKE BREEZE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MID-TO-LATE WEEK
AS A SHORTWAVE ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE RIDES THE RIDGE INTO THE
NORTHLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR OF 30 TO
40 KNOTS, CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG CAP
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT,
MEANING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES LINGER INTO SATURDAY, WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEASONAL IN THE 80S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS RETURNING IN THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
OVERNIGHT FOR INL/HIB. TOMORROW, EXPECT WINDIER CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 20-25 KTS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
MARINE DENSE FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IS REDUCING VISIBILITIES
SIGNIFICANTLY, OSCILLATING QUICKLY BETWEEN THE SHORE AND FURTHER
OUT IN THE LAKE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM
THIS EVENING FOR NEARSHORE ZONES FROM GRAND PORTAGE TO DULUTH.
MODELS HINT AT FOG EITHER LINGERING OR RETURNING FOR MONDAY, AND
ADDITIONAL FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS ACTIVE UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY FROM GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS
AND ACROSS THE APOSTLE ISLANDS FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES UP TO 4 FEET. ON MONDAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS,
BUILDING WAVES TO 4 TO 6 FEET, WITH OCCASIONAL HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET
IN THE NORTHEASTERN NEARSHORE WATERS. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. WINDS DO APPROACH GALE CRITERIA, BUT
GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND SOME AREAS COULD REACH TRIPLE
DIGITS. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS ACTIVE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING NORTH OF
THE IRON RANGE FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH, GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH, AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 25 TO 35
PERCENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED AT 10-15 MPH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY ACROSS
A LARGER AREA OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE, GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH, WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS FURTHER TO 22 TO 35 PERCENT.
THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE IN AN AREA UNDER ABNORMALLY TO
SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND HAVE SEEN LITTLE RAINFALL THE PAST
FEW WEEKS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH
ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO DECREASE BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
BUT MINIMUM RHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 25-45% RANGE DAILY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT SELECT CLIMATE SITES IN
THE NORTHLAND. THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE RECORD AND YEAR IT WAS
OBSERVED ARE IN THE FIRST COLUMN, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURE IN THE SECOND COLUMN.
SITE IDENTIFIERS AND NAMES
KDLH: DULUTH AREA (MEASURED AT DULUTH INT'L AIRPORT)
KINL: INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA (MEASURED AT INT'L FALLS AIRPORT)
KHIB: HIBBING AREA (MEASURED AT RANGE REGIONAL AIRPORT)
KBRD: BRAINERD AREA (MEASURED AT BRAINERD REGIONAL AIRPORT)
KASX: ASHLAND AREA (MEASURED AT JFK MEMORIAL AIRPORT)
RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 12: FORECAST
KINL: 96/1921 99
KHIB: 91/1969 95
JULY 13:
KINL: 93/1983 100
KHIB: 92/1983 96
JULY 14:
KASX: 94/1980 96
RECORD DAILY WARM LOW TEMPERATURES:
JULY 12: FORECAST
KDLH: 70/1892 71
KINL: 69/1898 71
KHIB: 67/1942 69
KASX: 67/2018 70
JULY 13:
KINL: 69/2013 72
KBRD: 73/1936 72
KHIB: 67/1997 70
KASX: 73/1954 71
JULY 14:
KDLH: 75/1983 72
KINL: 70/1983 69
KBRD: 72/1901 71
KHIB: 69/1995 70
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-037.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-
018-019.
WI...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
006>008.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR WIZ009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140-
146-147-150.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ142.
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML
CLIMATE...NLY
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