410
FNUS73 KDLH 131657
FWSDLH
SPOT FORECAST FOR JULY LIGHTNING EVENT...MNICS TYPE 3 INCIDENT MANAGEMENT TEAM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1157 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1200 CDT ON JULY 13.
IF THERE ARE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST, OR IF
CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH AT 218-729-0653.
..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...
DISCUSSION
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS,
CURRENTLY AT 12 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 21 MPH FROM THE ORR RAWS AT
1100, ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH AS MODERATELY DEEP MIXING TO 5,500 FEET OCCURS. MIN
RH THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 24 PERCENT WITH
RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES.
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH TONIGHT, REMAINING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY TO 74% IS FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
ON TUESDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
THROUGH, RESULTING IN A WIND SWITCH TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. MOST
LIKELY TIMING FOR THIS WIND SHIFT ON TUESDAY MORNING IS BETWEEN
0800-0900. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME, WITH
ONLY A 10% CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY, CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW (5% CHANCE) AT THIS TIME.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TOMORROW DUE TO
CRITICALLY DRY RH TO 23%, WITH AN UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING
POTENTIALLY NEEDED.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 100.
MIN HUMIDITY........24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 23 TO 28 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (73900-110700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
EXCELLENT (121000-132400 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............93 96 97 99 99 98
RH..............36 31 28 26 25 24
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..10 11 11 11 12 11
20 FT WIND GUST.22 22 23 23 25 28
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.7 4.5 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.23 25 25 26 28 29
SDSPL KT-FT/100074 98 111 121 132 123
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MAX HUMIDITY........69 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15
MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (96100 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
(4800-11300 KNOT-FT).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY COVER.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............97 91 81 79 78 75
RH..............26 35 56 60 63 67
20 FT WIND......SW 11 SW 9 SW 7 SW 7 SW 6 W 5
20 FT WIND GUST.30 24 19 20 19 16
MIX HGT (FT)....4400 800 500 500 500 500
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 30 SW 24 SW 14 SW 15 W 15 W 12
SDSPL KT-FT/100096 11 6 7 7 5
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.
MIN HUMIDITY........23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH LATE
IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 8 TO 14
MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (3800-21400 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
GOOD TO EXCELLENT (48800-64000 KNOT-FT).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY COVER.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............74 81 89 91
RH..............68 51 33 24
20 FT WIND......W 3G12 N 3G9 N 5G9 NW 7G14
MIX HGT (FT)....500 1800 3500 5300
TRANSPORT WIND..W 9 N 8 N 9 N 13
SDSPL KT-FT/10004 13 28 58
FORECASTER...WOODY
REQUESTED BY...TAYLOR SCHENK
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2617211.7/DLH
.DELDT 07/13/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL BENJAMIN_EVANS@FIRENET.GOV,TAYLOR_SCHENK@FIRENET.GOV
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