780
FXUS63 KDLH 280720
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
220 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WILL ERODE AFTER 10AM.
- WARMER TODAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR STORY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND STORMS RETURN LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MEANDERING AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE PUSHING MARINE FOG INLAND
THIS MORNING. THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE LAKE BY
LATE MORNING. LARGELY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 80S. NOT QUITE AS MUGGY AS YESTERDAY AWAY FROM THE
LAKE WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING OUT OF THE 70S. CAN'T FULLY RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE RETURN FLOW OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE ANY ACTIVITY WOULD ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND
INTO THE ARROWHEAD, BUT CHANCES ARE STILL FAIRLY LOW 15-25%. IF A
STORM DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP IT WILL HAVE SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH BUT THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING
TO SEVERE CRITERIA. THERE WILL ALSO STILL BE PLENTY OF SMOKE ALOFT
IN THE SKIES WHICH MAY INCREASE THE CIN FURTHER LOWERING CHANCES OF
ANYTHING DEVELOPING.
TOMORROW:
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S AND SOME LOW
90S ACROSS THE REGION. AND WITH THE DEWPOINTS APPROACHING THE UPPER
60S WE WILL SEE THOSE HEAT INDICIES CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE HELPING TO SUPPRESS ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BUT SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH COULD BE SLIGHTLY
AMPLIFIED BY ANY RIDGE RUNNERS. HOWEVER, MOST THE CAMS AND THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE KEEPS POPS AT BAY THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW,
WE HAVE LIMITED THE CHANCES TO LESS THAN 20%.
LATE WEEK:
OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER ARRIVES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE THREAT TOO THOUGH SHEAR
LOOKS A LITTLE WEAK AT THE MOMENT AND COULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CREEP BACK UP, MAINTAINING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
DESPITE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WEEKEND:
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN IN
A SOMEWHAT STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
STAY IN THE 80S. WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH,
WE CAN EXPECT OCCASIONAL, LESS ORGANIZED WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO DIVE ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS STALLED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE SENDING FOG
INLAND. DLH/HIB WILL SEE REDUCED VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND POSSIBLY HYR. THIS FOG WILL ERODE AFTER
SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLE CAN'T BE RULED OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINIMAL.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11AM. BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
LEADING TO VARIABLE WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVE HEIGHTS
STAYING LESS THAN 1 FOOT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE BUT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY STRONG. MIN RHS WILL ALSO BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 40%. LOW CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS RETURNING LATE THURSDAY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
140>148-150.
DISCUSSION...BRITT/WOLFE
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...BRITT
FIRE WEATHER...BRITT
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