259
FXUS63 KDLH 281734
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WILL ERODE AFTER 10AM.
- WARMER TODAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR STORY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND STORMS RETURN LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MEANDERING AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY
WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE PUSHING MARINE FOG INLAND
THIS MORNING. THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE LAKE BY
LATE MORNING. LARGELY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 80S. NOT QUITE AS MUGGY AS YESTERDAY AWAY FROM THE
LAKE WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING OUT OF THE 70S. CAN'T FULLY RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE RETURN FLOW OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE ANY ACTIVITY WOULD ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND
INTO THE ARROWHEAD, BUT CHANCES ARE STILL FAIRLY LOW 15-25%. IF A
STORM DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP IT WILL HAVE SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH BUT THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING
TO SEVERE CRITERIA. THERE WILL ALSO STILL BE PLENTY OF SMOKE ALOFT
IN THE SKIES WHICH MAY INCREASE THE CIN FURTHER LOWERING CHANCES OF
ANYTHING DEVELOPING.
TOMORROW:
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S AND SOME LOW
90S ACROSS THE REGION. AND WITH THE DEWPOINTS APPROACHING THE UPPER
60S WE WILL SEE THOSE HEAT INDICIES CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE HELPING TO SUPPRESS ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BUT SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH COULD BE SLIGHTLY
AMPLIFIED BY ANY RIDGE RUNNERS. HOWEVER, MOST THE CAMS AND THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE KEEPS POPS AT BAY THROUGH THE DAY. FOR NOW,
WE HAVE LIMITED THE CHANCES TO LESS THAN 20%.
LATE WEEK:
OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER ARRIVES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE THREAT TOO THOUGH SHEAR
LOOKS A LITTLE WEAK AT THE MOMENT AND COULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
CREEP BACK UP, MAINTAINING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
DESPITE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WEEKEND:
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN IN
A SOMEWHAT STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
STAY IN THE 80S. WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH,
WE CAN EXPECT OCCASIONAL, LESS ORGANIZED WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO DIVE ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT FOR HIB WHERE LINGERING LOW STRATUS REMAINS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTO
TONIGHT. SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AT HIB, DLH, AND HYR WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT HIB AND
MVFR CONDITIONS AT DLH AND HYR. FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT QUICKER
WEDNESDAY MORNING THAN IT DID THIS MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER 10 KNOTS OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS MAY BE MORE EASTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART. DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IMPROVING VISIBILITY HAS BEEN SEEN SO FAR, BUT
MODELS INDICATE FOG FILLING BACK IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE THURSDAY AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TOMORROW. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE
IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40%, BUT
SOME VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40% RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PERSIST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TOMORROW AT 4 TO 8 MPH. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>148-150.
DISCUSSION...BRITT/WOLFE
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH
FIRE WEATHER...BJH
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