653
FXUS63 KDLH 282311
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
611 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM AND HUMID TOMORROW ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN
WESTERN AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK INTO FAR NORTHERN MONTANA.
SOME LOW STRATUS WAS LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND UNDERNEATH THE
HIGH, MAINLY ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA TO THE IRON RANGE AND
AREAS WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, BUT THE
SMOKE ALOFT MAY ACT TO KEEP ANYTHING FROM DEVELOPING. OVERALL
CHANCES ARE AROUND 20% OR LESS FOR ANY RAINFALL TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP MAY BRIEFLY BE
STRONG WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG WITH LIMITED SHEAR IN PLACE. DRY CONDITIONS THEN
PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 50S AND 60S, COOLEST
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S LEADING TO
MUGGY CONDITIONS. WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WBGTS ABOVE 79F FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE WILL AGAIN BE A LOW CHANCE (<20%) FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WE'LL AGAIN SEE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY,
BUT LINGERING SMOKE ALOFT AND LIMITED SHEAR WILL LIMIT THIS THREAT.
WE MAY ALSO REMAINED TOO CAPPED FOR ANY STORMS TO OCCUR WITH NO
TRIGGER MECHANISM IN PLACE AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S.
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS CURRENTLY LOW.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AND QUITE MUGGY FOR THURSDAY, BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT EAST AND
BRING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AND SHEAR LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. WE ARE CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK BY
THE SPC AND THIS SEEMS APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME. WHILE HUMIDITY WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
RAINFALL CHANCES WILL THEN LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE JET STREAM WILL THEN SHIFT NORTH OF THE BORDER FOR
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, KEEPING THE MAIN STORM TRACK TO OUR
NORTH. THERE WILL BE LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE 70S AND
LOW 80S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING HEADING
INTO THE NEW WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF FOG CREATING LIFR TO MVFR
VISIBILITY 06-12Z TONIGHT. A FEW AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY PM. KHIB
CARRIES A VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR THAT POTENTIAL SCENARIO.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER 10 KNOTS OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS MAY BE MORE EASTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART. DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IMPROVING VISIBILITY HAS BEEN SEEN SO FAR, BUT
MODELS INDICATE FOG FILLING BACK IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE THURSDAY AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TOMORROW. AFTERNOON HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE
IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40%, BUT
SOME VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40% RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PERSIST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TOMORROW AT 4 TO 8 MPH. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018-019-025-026-033>038.
WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ001>003-
006>008.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ141>147-
150.
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...BJH
FIRE WEATHER...BJH
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