566
FXUS63 KDLH 292339
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
639 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF SMOKE ALOFT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER HOT SUMMER DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 2, THEN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND STORMS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- QUIET AND CLOSER TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND,
THEN MORE OCCASIONAL RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
WE HAVE MAINLY QUIET WEATHER OUT THERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME PATCHY DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS (NOTABLY SOME CLOUD STREETS
UP IN THE ARROWHEAD) AS WELL AS A SINGLE STORM THAT HAS POPPED
UP AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS. IN ADDITION TO THAT, THERE IS A
GENERAL HAZE IN THE SKY FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST, GIVING
THE SKY A HAZY APPEARANCE LIKELY INTO TONIGHT.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND HOT WEATHER. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EXPECTED. THE MAIN TRICK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE MONITORING FOR ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT OUT THERE IS ALREADY AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE QUITE UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE IN THE 1-2+ KJ/KG RANGE. BULK
SHEAR ISN'T VERY STRONG, BUT THERE IS UP TO ~30 KT AND MOST OF
THAT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE
AND NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. DCAPE IS ALSO QUITE HIGH WITH JUST
OVER 1 KJ/KG IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. BUT, SYNOPTIC LIFT IS
GOING TO BE PRETTY WEAK WITH JUST A FEW RIPPLES WITHIN THE
BROADER RIDGING ALOFT. THE ENTIRE MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY LOOK TOO DRY FOR MUCH THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, BUT IF WE COULD GET ANY TO POP, THEN THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS OR MAYBE A LITTLE
HAIL. THAT RISK WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER, WHERE EVENTUALLY WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOME
MORE PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION ALOFT SHOULD
PROMOTE MORE SYNOPTIC DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN GENERAL.
WE'LL LIKELY GO FROM THIS SMALL/ISOLATED SEVERE CHANCE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING INTO A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN UP THAT WAY
BUT WITH DECREASING SEVERE CHANCES GRADUALLY INTO TONIGHT AS WE
LOSE BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
THURSDAY MORNING, A LITTLE MORE OF THE SAME FOR A WHILE WITH
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS ROUGHLY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE MOST
OTHER PLACES MAY BE DRY. EXACT PLACEMENT COULD VARY THOUGH, SO
EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE IRON RANGE HAS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
MORNING RAIN. EVERYWHERE ELSE, CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS, WE'LL HAVE PLENTY OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
PARTIAL SUNSHINE FOR A WHILE, SO ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY SUMMER
DAY IS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CRITERIA THAT WOULD JUSTIFY ANOTHER
HEAT ADVISORY, BUT WE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW SINCE IT SHOULD BE A
TOUCH COOLER TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY AND THE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES SUPPORT THAT WE MAY NOT NEED ONE.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WE WILL HAVE MORE ROBUST
SYNOPTIC FORCING ALOFT WITH A BROAD TROUGH PASSING THROUGH.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH AND A COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT,
EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WE
SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT ALMOST NOTHING FOR SHEAR. ONE CONCERN IS THAT WE
COULD END UP WITH A LINE OF STORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
WHICH WOULD INTRODUCE A MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SOME
LARGE HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS WELL.
WE'VE BEEN WATCHING FOR A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AS WELL
WITH WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS CLOSE TO THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER. MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
INTO WISCONSIN FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVERALL, WHERE SOME
WIDESPREAD 1"+ AMOUNTS MAY FALL. UP HERE, WE WILL BE DEALING
WITH MORE OF THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM VARIETY. SOME PLACES
COULD DEFINITELY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS,
BUT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MANY
PLACES MAY ONLY SEE ~0.1-0.3".
LINGERING RAIN SHOULD SEE ITS WAY OUT ON FRIDAY WITH SOME NON-
SEVERE STORMS LINGERING IN WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. WE'LL FIND OURSELVES ON THE FAR EASTERN SIDE OF A
BROAD RIDGE TO THE WEST, SO QUIET WEATHER IS LOOKING LIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE'LL HAVE SOME ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY, THEN
A RETURN TO MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK, MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION, SO
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A BIT UPWARDS AGAIN. IT'S LOOKING LIKE
WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH GOING INTO
TUESDAY, SO PERHAPS SOME MORE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF COOL DOWN. THEN RINSE AND REPEAT WITH MORE WARMER AIR TO
END THE WEEK AND THEN PERHAPS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOMETIME LATE-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND TO BRING SOME MORE RAIN
CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH ANY STORMS PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
ONE OR TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK OVER THE BORDER
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND LOOK TO BRING AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INL AND POSSIBLY CREEPING DOWN
TO HIB AND DLH MID-MORNING. THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME MARGINAL
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS, BUT
THE KEY FORECAST MESSAGE FOR AVIATORS IS THE CHANCE FOR STORMS.
INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY, THE FORECAST IS MUDDIED THANKS TO THE
HUMID AIR MASS AND THE FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SLOWLY
SPREADING SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO DLH AND NEARBY SITES. DETAILS WILL
HAVE TO BE RESOLVED MORE ON THURSDAY, BUT THE CHANCE FOR STORMS
DOES EXIST AT AREA AIRPORTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND JUST BEYOND
THE TAF INTO THE EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING
THE DAYTIME THURSDAY, WITH ENOUGH SPEED TO KEEP A LAKE BREEZE
AT BAY FOR DLH.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
NO MAJOR CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH A LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATION POSSIBLE, BRIEFLY REVERSING WIND DIRECTION BUT WITH
LIGHT SPEEDS. A SIMILAR TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE, BUT SOME GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND RH EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40-50% RANGE, FIRE
WEATHER IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN. MORE HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY, CLOUDS, AND RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE MORNING WITH CHANCES
INCREASING ELSEWHERE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING RAIN AND A
FEW STORMS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY HOVER AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH WITH SOME PLACES SEEING A LITTLE LESS AND SOME MORE. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE 0.5"-1" OF
RAIN AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. OVERALL, THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
IN EXCESS OF 0.5" WILL BE IN EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL. NOT MUCH WIND OR LOW RH IN SIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND. WE
MAY SEE SOME BREEZIER CONDITIONS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018-
019-025-026-033>038.
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001>003-
006>008.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...WFO DVN
MARINE...JDS
FIRE WEATHER...JDS
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