851
FXUS63 KDLH 300525
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1225 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS EXIST ALONG DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
BEACHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND
WAVES.
- DENSE FOG OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS NAVIGATION
CONDITIONS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY OVERNIGHT TOO.
- HOT AND MUGGY INLAND TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 90,
FOLLOWED BY A DRIER BUT STILL WARM STRETCH FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, A HOT AND MUGGY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S AND EVEN
LOW 90S FAR INLAND. CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR, BRISK NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER BUT WILL ALSO DRIVE HIGH
WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE TWIN PORTS BEACHES -
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT TODAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
AND WILL ALSO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
LAKE.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO OUR AREA, USHERING IN A DRIER AND A SLIGHTLY MORE
COMFORTABLE AIRMASS. WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY WARM IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S, THE OPPRESSIVE
HUMIDITY WILL TAKE A SUBTLE BREAK. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH PATCHY SMOKE CONTINUING TO DRIFT OVERHEAD. A STRAY
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT,
BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL STAY DRY AND PLEASANT.
MARINE FOG MAY DRIFT ON AND OFF SHORE BUT THAT WILL ALSO HELP
MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
THE QUIET WEATHER HOLDS FIRM THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN REACH THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS STRETCH WILL
PROVIDE SOME RELIEF, DROPPING COMFORTABLY INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND 60S.
OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER ARRIVES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING OUR NEXT
WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND POSSIBLY
SOME SEVERE THREAT TOO THOUGH SHEAR LOOKS A LITTLE WEAK AT THE
MOMENT AND COULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREEP BACK
UP, MAINTAINING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S DESPITE THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN
IN A SOMEWHAT STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE 80S. WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK POSITIONED
TO OUR NORTH, WE CAN EXPECT OCCASIONAL, LESS ORGANIZED WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIVE ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOKING TOWARD THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER INDICATES THAT THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
SIGNALS ARE WEAKER, BUT SLIGHTLY FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES
THE CENTRAL CONUS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS ROUNDING THE APEX OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHLAND PROVIDING SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING. IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER
THE STORM MOTION WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH HIB, HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOT
OF DRY AIR TO WORK THROUGH SO WILL MONITOR RADAR AND ADD A TEMPO IF
NECESSARY.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS WELL WITH HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SHOWING POOR AGREEMENT FOR PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WE FIND OURSELVES IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WHICH
WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY.
THE BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHICH MAY PROMPT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY OVERNIGHT. DENSE FOG WILL
RESTRICT VISIBILITY TO UNDER ONE NAUTICAL MILE FOR NEARSHORE
WATERS, WHILE NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS BUILD WAVES OF
3 TO 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. DENSE FOG MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT THOUGH.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
HOT TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF PRECIP ARE THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
MOSTLY BOTTOM OUT ABOVE 40 PERCENT THIS WEEK WITH WINDS GUSTING
TO 10 TO 15 MPH FROM VARIOUS DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE WEEK,
MITIGATING EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLFE
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...WOLFE
FIRE WEATHER...WOLFE
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