807
FXUS63 KDLH 300650
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
150 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS MORNING
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE AND COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. MARGINAL SEVERE OUTLOOK TODAY (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5).
- COOLER AND QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER FRIDAY IS LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
EARLY THIS MORNING A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS ROUNDING THE APEX OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION LEADING TO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN
PARKED OVER THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS GAVE WAY TO PLENTY OF FUEL
FOR THESE STORMS TO FIRE OFF. VENTILATION WAS A BIT MORE NEBULOUS
WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE RADAR
PRESENTATION SUB SEVERE HAIL HAS LIKELY BEEN OBSERVED WITH
OCCASIONAL QUARTERS AT TIMES. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
RED RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER DOSE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR NORTHERN MN LATER THIS MORNING.
TRYING TO PICK OUT THE PERFECT SOLUTION FOR TODAY WILL BE NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE. THE BIG PICTURE IS THAT WE STILL HAVE A VERY WARM AND
MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT PAIRED WITH ANY
SUBTLE DISTURBANCES ALOFT COULD GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL INITIALLY BE OUT
WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A STOUT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PRESSES EAST. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO HELP TO PROPEL A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE BETTER RAINFALL STILL LOOKS TO BE TO
OUR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
MN. THAT'S NOT TO SAY WE WON'T SEE ANY ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
WHICH WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS
TO HELP GENERATE SOME ACTIVITY AS WELL. BUT THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
LARGELY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH THE REGION GETS WORKED OVER DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVEN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE THERMODYNAMICS
SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG
EXPECTED. THE LIMITING FACTORS REMAIN OUR LIFTING MECHANISM, WHICH
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AND THE KINEMATICS AS OUR BULK
SHEAR VALUES NEEDED FOR PROPER STORM MAINTENANCE REMAIN LACKING. AS
SUCH THE SPC STILL HAS THE REGION HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. PRIMARY HAZARDS WOULD BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS STILL OUTLINED
AS A MARGINAL THREAT FROM WPC AS WELL, BUT GIVEN THAT THE BETTER
FORCING IS TO OUR SOUTH THIS SEEMS LESS IMPACTFUL. PWATS WILL STILL
BE OVER 1.50" WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE, SO STORMS THAT DO
GENERATE COULD DISPERSE SOME HEALTHY AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
FRIDAY:
RAIN AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A FINAL PUSH OF STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NW WI AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
DROP OUT OF THE 70S AND BACK INTO THE 60S PROVIDING A NICE REPRIEVE
FROM THE MUGGY WEATHER.
WEEKEND-NEXT WEEK:
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS ONTARIO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SEASONABLE AVERAGES WITH
HIGHS FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 80S. FORTUNATELY DEWPOINTS WILL STAY IN
THE 60S KEEPING THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AT BAY. MONDAY STARTS TO WARM UP
WITH HIGH CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FROM
THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE STREAMS BACK INTO THE NORTHLAND. THIS
WARM UP WILL BE BREIF AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SLIDES IN LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES AND COOLER
WEATHER ON THE BACKSIDE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS ROUNDING THE APEX OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHLAND PROVIDING SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING. IF THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER
THE STORM MOTION WOULD TAKE IT THROUGH HIB, HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOT
OF DRY AIR TO WORK THROUGH SO WILL MONITOR RADAR AND ADD A TEMPO IF
NECESSARY.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS WELL WITH HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SHOWING POOR AGREEMENT FOR PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WE FIND OURSELVES IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WHICH
WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY.
THE BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHICH MAY PROMPT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KTS, SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS COULD BE
OBSERVED FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY LEAD TO BRIEF
INSTANCES OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. STORMS MAY ALSO BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY
STARTS TO TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
ACROSS. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. RAIN TOTALS WILL BE THAT
OF FEAST OR FAMINE WITH A JUICY ATMOSPHERE CAPABLE OF OUTPUTTING
OVER INCH OF RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPORADIC.
ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND
WINDS SWITCH TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...BRITT
FIRE WEATHER...BRITT
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