619
FXUS63 KDLH 310521
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1221 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR
LARGE HAIL. MARGINAL SEVERE OUTLOOK INTO THIS EVENING (LEVEL
1 OUT OF 5).
- LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
- COOLER AND QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER FRIDAY IS LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE FOR MOST PLACES WITH SOME HAZE FROM SMOKE
ALOFT. AROUND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WE HAVE HAD SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. STORMS HAVE BEEN FUELED BY STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING. THERE IS ALSO SOME CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
ALOFT. ONCE STORMS FORMED, IT LOOKED LIKE THEIR MOVEMENT WAS
BASED PARTIALLY ON WHERE INSTABILITY WAS AND POSSIBLY STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THEIR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE ARROWHEAD SAW A
QUICK ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH RADAR SIGNATURES
SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD HAVE BEEN SOME ~60 MPH DOWNBURST
WIND GUSTS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE MAIN CONCERN IS MORE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE, AND THUS THE THREAT FOR HAIL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
INITIAL UPDRAFTS FOR SHORT DURATION. FOLLOWING THAT, STORMS MAY
RAIN ON THEMSELVES WITH THE LACK OF SHEAR, AND THEN THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. THE
PREDICTABILITY OF WHERE AND WHEN STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IS RATHER LOW, BUT THE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH IN PLACEMENT, SO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS, AND THAT'S
WHERE SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, BRINGING PLENTY
OF RAIN TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-94. UP HERE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS DRAMATIC
AS A WHOLE WITH LESS SYNOPTIC FORCING AND PWAT (THOUGH PWAT WILL
ACTUALLY STILL BE HIGH UP HERE AROUND 1.5-2.0"). WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY HOVER AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH, BUT WITH
PWATS BEING PRETTY HIGH, ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH. CAPE
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT, SO THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO THIS EVENING. FLOODING THREAT OVERNIGHT IS NON-
ZERO, BUT IT'S EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY ISOLATED AND ONLY IN ANY
PLACES WHERE ANY PERSISTENT STORMS MAY DEVELOP (WHICH ISN'T A
GUARANTEE).
EXPECT RAIN TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. WE WILL PROBABLY DEAL WITH LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE. AFTER THE RAIN EXITS, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN A BIT
AND WE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SOME PLEASANT WEATHER OVERALL. SMOKE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE AS WELL AS WE GET MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE ORIGINS
OUT WEST.
FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND WE SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S. THERE'S PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH AROUND MONDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AS A WHOLE DON'T LOOK
TOO IMPRESSIVE, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR A NOCTURNAL SQUALL LINE THAT COULD PRODUCE
SOME GUSTY WINDS. WE WILL PROBABLY RETURN AGAIN TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH QUIETER
WEATHER, THEN MAYBE BRIEFLY WARMER THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT GOING INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MN THIS
EVENING WITH MINIMAL LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
SWINGING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WITH A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY THAT MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS POINT AND
EVEN THE RAIN CHANCES ARE STARTING TO TREND SOUTH TOWARDS THE BETTER
FORCING. OVERALL, EXPECTING LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS, IF A RAIN SHOWER
DOES MANAGE TO MOVE OVER A TERMINAL SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
THE MAIN MARINE CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THERE'S LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS, BUT NEAR THE NORTH SHORE IS MOST
LIKELY. A STRAY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50 KT CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE, WINDS
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING (BECOMING NORTHEAST SATURDAY). ANOTHER
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THAT COULD DEVELOP.
AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO HAVE
BECOME SPOTTY, SO THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY, AND WHILE MOST PLACES WILL LIKELY PICK
UP A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO, SOME PLACES MAY SEE VERY LITTLE,
AND OTHERS THAT SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP COULD LOCALLY SEE
AN INCH OR MORE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE FROM ROUGHLY INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO THE BRAINERD LAKES
WHERE SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS BRIEF LARGE HAIL.
A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY RAIN/STORM CHANCES TONIGHT, CAUSING
A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY INTO FRIDAY AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
INTO SATURDAY. WINDS RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AND
SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT. MIN RH SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINANT. 40-50% RH WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS FALLING TO 35% CAN
BE EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF PLACES WHERE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME RAIN AND THUNDER MONDAY
NIGHT.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...JDS
FIRE WEATHER...JDS
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