831
FXUS63 KDLH 311123
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
623 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 20-40% CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STORM
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON ARE LESS THAN 20%. NO SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED.
- COOLER AND QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE. AFTERWARDS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS MORNING WITH
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY CROSSING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. ALOFT WE
HAVE A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS HELPING TO PROPEL THIS SYSTEM
EAST WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING BEING OBSERVED WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
OUR AREA HAS BEEN ABLE TO SEE SOME SHOWER GENERATION ALONG SOME LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY AS WELL AS THE PASSING SURFACE
BOUNDARY. BUT OVERALL COVERAGE IS FAIRLY LIMITED AND THE LATEST
HIGH RES GUIDANCE THAT HAS COME IN IS FAVORING A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK FOR RAIN. LARGELY KEEPING IT ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION AND EAST INTO PORTIONS OF NW WI. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
HAS TRIMMED THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF POPS AND LOWERED CHANCES TO
20-40% THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
QUITE LOW WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LITTLE INSTABILITY AND
DEEP SATURATION. STEERING FLOW IS RATHER SLOW, IF ANY SHOWERS DO
MANAGE TO FORM THEY COULD LEAD TO A GOOD SOAKING FOR IMPACTED
AREAS WITH PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES. THE ONLY STORM POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS NW WI, BUT WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FROM THE
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM; INSTABILITY RECOVERY SEEMS UNLIKELY. WITH
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE SURFACE FRONT INCHING ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY, IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S.
WEEKEND-NEXT WEEK:
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS ONTARIO AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SEASONABLE AVERAGES WITH
HIGHS FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 80S. FORTUNATELY DEWPOINTS WILL STAY
IN THE 60S KEEPING THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AT BAY. DIURNAL HEATING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL PAIR OFF WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT THAT
COULD GENERATE SOME SHOWERS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS WOULD BE
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AS THE ADDED OROGRAPHIC FROM WINDS OFF THE
LAKE MAY BE THE BOOST NEEDED FOR SOME ACTIVITY. FOR NOW, THIS IS
ONLY A 20-30% CHANCE. MONDAY STARTS TO WARM UP WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FROM THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE STREAMS BACK INTO THE NORTHLAND. THIS
WARM UP WILL BE BREIF AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SLIDES IN LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WITH
COOLER WEATHER ON THE BACKSIDE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND TOWARDS NW
WI THIS MORNING. A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
SHOULD ANY ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND EXIT THIS EVENING. A FEW MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
SOLUTION AT THE MOMENT SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR NOW.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GROW
TO 1-2 FEET AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE FOR SATURDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. COULD SEE MIN RHS DROP TO AROUND 35% ACROSS
NORTHERN MN BUT WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. LOW FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS
ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...BRITT
FIRE WEATHER...BRITT
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