032
FXUS63 KDLH 311759
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1259 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN.
- COOLER AND QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE. AFTERWARDS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT:
LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING THROUGH IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
TODAY WITH THE BULK OF THE ATTENDANT SYNOPTIC RAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
WE HAVE HAD MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UP HERE THIS MORNING DUE
TO SOME CONVERGENCE AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THAT HAS
RESULTED IN SOME PRETTY GOOD RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE FOR A FEW AREAS, BUT THIS HASN'T NECESSARILY BEEN
WIDESPREAD. CONVECTION HAS REALLY DROPPED OFF RECENTLY AND WE'RE
LEFT WITH MOSTLY A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY LIGHTNING
OUT THERE IN A COUPLE HOURS. WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY NOW,
THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LATER ON, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC RAIN,
WE MAY EXPECT A BIT OF REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING. MODELS STILL
WANT TO REDEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS STORMS ALONG AND
AROUND THE NORTH SHORE AS WELL, OWING TO SOME MIDLEVEL
CONVERGENCE. ANY STORMS WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE, AND FLOODING
CONCERNS AT THIS POINT ARE VERY MINIMAL. RAINFALL RATES HAVE AT
TIMES BEEN PRETTY IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING, BUT WITH CURRENT
RATES WINDING DOWN, EVEN A BRIEF UPTICK IN RATES THIS AFTERNOON
IS NOT LIKELY TO CAUSE MUCH ISSUES. EXPECT LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT, AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD END THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
RIDGING DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY ALOFT WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
OR AROUND THE ARROWHEAD WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSING
BY ALOFT AND SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE POSSIBLE AS WE GET AN
EAST-NORTHEAST LAKE BREEZE AND MORE NORTHERLY WINDS INLAND.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, WE GET MORE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S. THE 70S ARE EXPECTED AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR,
BUT INLAND, WIND DIRECTION WILL SWITCH TO MORE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MOVES EAST
AND WE GET SOME RETURN FLOW. SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE PRETTY
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, BUT NIGHTTIME LOWS IN NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA START TO CLIMB A BIT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING AS WE GO INTO MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD LOW 80S ARE LOOKING LIKELY ON MONDAY WITH PRETTY
UNIFORM SOUTHERLY FLOW EXCEPT ONSHORE RIGHT BY LAKE SUPERIOR. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY, AND AHEAD OF
THAT MONDAY NIGHT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME, IT'S LOOKING MOST LIKELY THAT ANY SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE OVER IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA BASED ON TIMING AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. IF THAT TREND
CHANGES SUCH THAT THE FRONT MOVES FASTER, THAT COULD PUT A
LITTLE OF OUR AREA (E.G. BRAINERD LAKES TOWARDS INTERNATIONAL
FALLS) AT A GREATER RISK FOR SEEING A FEW STRONGER STORMS. IN
GENERAL, WE MIGHT HAVE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 1.5 KJ/KG OF MUCAPE
AND 30-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH COULD PROMOTE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS, BUT MORE LIKELY IS THAT THIS THREAT WILL BE
LARGELY TO OUR WEST AND WE WILL GET THE LEFTOVERS WITH SOME RAIN
AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG
WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS IF ANY
STRONGER STORMS WERE TO HAPPEN, BUT IT'S A PRETTY LOW (<10%)
CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE EAST ON TUESDAY,
LINGERING INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
POTENTIALLY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL AND QUIET DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
LIKELY IN THE 70S. FLOW ALOFT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BECOME
MORE QUASI-ZONAL WITH SEVERAL PASSING WAVES. WE MAY HAVE SOME
MORE RAIN CHANCES AROUND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
PERHAPS AGAIN AROUND FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS RAIN OUT THERE MAINLY
AFFECTING BRD/HYR/DLH. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME REDEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AT DLH/HYR, SO EXPECT SOME VARYING VISIBILITIES WITH VFR
AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWESTERLY AT MN TERMINALS, BUT MORE VARIABLE
AT HYR. SPEEDS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A GOOD
SIGNAL FOR SOME FOG, POSSIBLY DENSE, AT DLH/HYR WHERE MOST OF
THE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE RAPID
FLUCTUATIONS IN VISIBILITY AND POSSIBLY CEILINGS OVERNIGHT WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE FOG WILL LIFT AROUND THE
12-13Z WINDOW WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS SATURDAY
MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH OVER TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
EXPECTED TO BE FROM 15-20 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 1-2 FT
RANGE. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THESE TRENDS THOUGH,
BECAUSE IT'S POSSIBLE THAT WINDS AND WAVES COULD END UP JUST A
BIT HIGHER SUCH THAT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
WARRANTED AROUND THE HEAD OF THE LAKE (PROBABILITY ~25%). A
SIMILAR SITUATION IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY INLAND ON MONDAY, BUT
REMAIN MORE NORTHEAST ON THE WATER. WE WILL PROBABLY AGAIN HAVE
15-20 KT GUSTS WITH A SMALL RISK FOR SEEING SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
RAIN CONTINUES FOR EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH, BUT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS SHOULD PICK UP LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING IN EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
ON SATURDAY, THERE'S A ~20-30% CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY
AROUND THE ARROWHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
OTHERWISE, PRETTY QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS SATURDAY, SOUTHEAST WINDS IN NORTHERN MN SUNDAY WITH
SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 MPH RANGE, AND SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 15-25 MPH MONDAY PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE (BEST CHANCES ON
THE MN SIDE THOUGH). WHILE MIN RH VALUES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 40-50% RANGE, IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING IF THERE
ARE SOME LOWER AMOUNTS DUE TO LACK OF RAINFALL IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS
ON SATURDAY, AS THIS WILL BE TELLING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY'S
CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR.
A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WETTING RAIN FOR MANY
AREAS.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS
FIRE WEATHER...JDS
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