211
FXUS63 KDLH 011125
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
625 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE. AFTERWARDS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
THIS WEEKEND:
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING WELL OFF TO THE SE THIS MORNING AS IT
EXITS IA. OVER IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS WE HAVE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT WE CAN SEE
CLEARING SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM
CANADA. THROUGH THE DAY SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS WILL FORM WITH
A LARGER CLUSTER LIKELY OVER THE ARROWHEAD. AIDED BY SOME OROGRAPHIC
LIFT AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING ALOFT THIS COULD SPAWN SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF
AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE MUCH MILDER WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES AROUND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. ON SHORE FLOW DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL ALSO HELP TO DIP OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE
50S.
MONDAY/TUESDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM BEGINS ITS APPROACH ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE 80S. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S ACROSS OUT WEST. THE 00Z SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
HIGHLIGHTS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET CRUISING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THIS SYSTEM.
FARTHER SOUTH, AN ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP IN LEE OF
THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY BUT OUR MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MARCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BEST
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY EVENING.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE TO OUR WEST SO WE WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE LINE AS IT ADVANCES INTO OUR REGION. INSTABILITY
MAY BE A BIT LIMITED BASED ON HOW CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON
STORMS DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY, THE BETTER SHEAR WILL BE TIED TO
ALONG THE FRONT. FOR NOW, THE SEVERE RISK LOOKS MARGINAL WITH
MOST OF THE NWP HATCHING OUT A 15% CHANCE OF SEVERE IN OUR NW
WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH WHAT SPC HAS OUTLINED.
THE FRONT WILL MARCH THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE PARAMETER SPACE AT THIS
TIME DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
THE REGION CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE 70S.
MID WEEK:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING IN THE 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TURNS MORE ZONAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
LITTLE BIT OF FOG OVER IN NW WI THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF
WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE FORECAST. QUIET WEATHER TODAY
WITH SOME HAZY SKIES ALOFT DUE TO SMOKE. DIURNAL CUMULUS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE
ARROWHEAD WHERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPING
TOMORROW MORNING AT BRD/HYR.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A NOTABLE LAKE BREEZE MOVES ONSHORE AND WELL-
INLAND. A FEW GUSTS APPROACH THE 25 KNOTS INTO THE SOUTHWEST ARM
AND NEAR SAXON HARBOR REGIONS OF WESTERN WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE CONDITIONS AS THE WAVES ALSO
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET. A TIME PERIOD TO WATCH WILL BE
THE SATURDAY EARLY MORNING TIME PERIOD WITH A FEW HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE MODELS PROGGING THIS TIME PERIOD FOR A 1-2 HOUR WIND
FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS TOO. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIMING MAY
WELL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THIS
SCENARIO ACTUALLY OCCURRING TOMORROW MORNING.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN SUNDAY WHICH
WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORY NEEDS IN
TIME.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY WITH MIN RHS DROPPING INTO THE 40S. AREAS THAT GET ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE TODAY COULD DROP TO AROUND 35%. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH SHORE AND THE ARROWHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL TURN BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH. FAVORABLE ONSHORE FLOW FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE IN PLAY THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MARCHES IN FROM THE WEST.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
SUNDAY FOR LSZ144-145-148-150.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...NLY
FIRE WEATHER...BRITT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page