576
FXUS63 KDLH 020524
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1224 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
- BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST MN. NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE A BIT BREEZIER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS A BIT TIGHTER. THE LAKE BREEZE ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE COUPLED WITH A WEAK WAVE ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT MIGHT EXTEND
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE HEAD OF THE LAKE, BETTER CHANCES FOR A
QUICK RAIN SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON ARE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTH OF SILVER BAY. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, ANY ACTIVITY
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH.
TONIGHT, WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE LAKE, THERE IS
A 20-40% CHANCE DENSE FOG COULD SPREAD INLAND, MAINLY ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE AND UP THE ST. LOUIS RIVER VALLEY. VISIBILITIES
COULD DROP BELOW 0.5 MILE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY, QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHLAND. WINDS WILL START TO TURN TO
THE SOUTH BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES OR A
FEW DEGREES BELOW. MOST OF THE AREA WILL START OUT IN THE 50S
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH A FEW UPPER 40S OVER THE ARROWHEAD.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WARM INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL REFLECT THE WARMER AIRMASS ARRIVING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WEST TO
UPPER 40S OVER THE ARROWHEAD.
MONDAY/TUESDAY:
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MONDAY, ALLOWING HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 80S. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER
60S ACROSS OUT WEST. A SHORTWAVE, MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, WILL PIVOT AROUND THE BASE OF A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
A CANADIAN CLOSED LOW, AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHLAND
MONDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MONDAY AFTERNOON, SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH OF THE BRAINERD LAKES,
AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
BETTER FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE FRONT, AND A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS, PUSHING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, INSTABILITIES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES. HOWEVER, LAPSE RATES REMAIN HIGH INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES INCREASING TO 50-60KTS ALONG THE FRONT. THE SEVERE
RISK LOOKS MARGINAL WITH A 15% CHANCE OF SEVERE IN OUR NW. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE PARAMETER SPACE TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST WI, BUT RIGHT NOW, DO NOW EXPECT A
SEVERE THREAT IN THAT AREA.
A SECONDARY FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING
DRIER AIR WITH IT, AND A RETURN TO MORE MILD TEMPERATURES.
MID WEEK:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING IN THE 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TURNS MORE ZONAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
SATELLITE SHOWS ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING MOVING
INTO NW WI AND THE LOW LYING AREAS AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE. NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTING THIS TO IMPACT DLH BUT HYR LOOKS TO BE IN LINE
FOR SOME FOG WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR TOMORROW MORNING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. QUIET
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
TURNING FROM OUT OF THE EAST TO OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH DLH BEING THE EXCEPTION.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A NOTABLE LAKE BREEZE MOVES ONSHORE
AND WELL- INLAND. A FEW GUSTS APPROACH THE 25 KNOTS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ARM AND NEAR SAXON HARBOR REGIONS OF WESTERN WATERS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE CONDITIONS AS
THE WAVES ALSO BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET. EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, DENSE
FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE, WITH A
20-40% CHANCE OF VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH MIN RHS DROPPING INTO THE 40S. AREAS
THAT GET ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY COULD DROP TO AROUND 35%.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH SHORE AND THE
ARROWHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE IN PLAY THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL TURN BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST MN BY SUNDAY
AND REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY OVER NORTHWEST WI. NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MARCHES IN FROM THE WEST.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...HA
FIRE WEATHER...HA
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