130
FXUS63 KDLH 021806
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
106 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND STORMS RETURN MONDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OUT OF 5) WEST OF A LINE FROM INL TO WALKER, WITH A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) EASTWARD TO A LINE FROM NEAR ELY TO
MILLE LACS LAKE. BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARRIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
ONSHORE FLOW FROM OVERNIGHT HAS LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FOG AT THE
HEAD OF THE LAKE AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE NW WI. THIS FOG WILL
QUICKLY ERODE AFTER SUNRISE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING US WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. WINDS WILL ALSO BE SHIFTING FROM
OUT OF THE EAST TO OUT OF THE SOUTH, THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS
CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND KEEP
THINGS COOLER.
MONDAY/TUESDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE GETS SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING
FOR BROAD SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE HOLD OF THE
REGION. DURING THE MORNING HOURS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES OF SOME ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH A BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KTS COULD
LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS THAT GENERATE LARGE HAIL. THE CURRENT SUITE OF
HIGH RES GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS BEING FARTHER WEST OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA
WHERE THE HREF IS HIGHLIGHTING SOME SWATHS OF HIGHER UPDRAFT
HELICITY. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THIS
ONSET OF MORNING STORMS CAN HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MARCH INTO NE MN.
HOWEVER, IF THEY DO HOLD TOGETHER THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETER SPACE
LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS IN OUR CWA AND MAY END UP
BEING LIGHT SHOWERS.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DESPITE THE MORNING STORM ACTIVITY, THE REGION WILL SEE AMPLE
RECOVERY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PROMOTING WARM ADVECTION AND PUSHING
MLCAPE UPWARDS OF 1000-2000 J/KG. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD TRIGGERING CONVECTION.
BULK SHEAR WILL STILL BE BOUNTIFUL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING
AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO MANITOBA. SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A
TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME, BUT THE BETTER STREAMWISE
VORTICITY LOOKS TO BE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY, WHICH THEN FADES AS
THE STORM MODE BECOMES MORE LINEAR AS IT TRACKS INTO OUR CWA.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE SEVERE RISK FADING IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THEREAFTER, SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAKER STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES WEST TO
EAST.
MID WEEK:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
THE 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TURNS MORE ZONAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
MORNING LOW STRATUS/FOG HAS LIFTED, EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE HEAD OF
THE LAKE. OTHERWISE, THERE AREA A FEW AREAS OF CU/STRATO- CU
WITH VFR HEIGHTS. RELATIVELY QUIET, AND VFR, CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT FORECAST TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
OF LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS OFF THE HEAD OF THE LAKE AGAIN
TONIGHT, BUT PROBS ARE LOWER AND EXPECTED CLOUD HEIGHTS/VIS NOT
AS LOW. WILL NOT INCLUDE AT DLH OR HYR AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, WITH A TURN TO THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT
A GUST OF 16-18KTS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TODAY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KTS. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 2-3FT AT
THE HEAD OF THE LAKE. MONDAY WINDS WILL TURN TO OUT OF THE EAST
AROUND 5-10 KTS. MONDAY NIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ENTER FROM THE
WEST WITH WINDS CHANGING TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15
KTS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM OUT OF THE EAST TO OUT OF THE NORTH WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE EAST. MIN RHS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME SPOTS THAT GET ABUNDANT SUNSHINE DROPPING TO AROUND 35%. RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY. LOOKING AT POTENTIALLY TWO
DIFFERENT ROUNDS. THE FIRST ONE IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE
WEAKEST IN THE BATCH. LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A COLD FRONT MARCHING WEST TO EAST.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...BRITT
FIRE WEATHER...BRITT
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