428
FXUS63 KDLH 022354
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
654 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM CHANCES RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) WEST OF A
LINE FROM INL TO WALKER, WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF
5) EASTWARD TO A LINE FROM NEAR ELY TO MILLE LACS LAKE.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- MOSTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHEAST MN, WITH MORE VARIABLE DIRECTIONS OVER NORTHWEST WI.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE PUSHED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S FOR MOST. EXPECT LOCATIONS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR TO REMAIN
IN LOW TO MID 70S.
TONIGHT, ONSHORE FLOW COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG AT THE HEAD OF
THE LAKE AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE NW WI. PROBABILITIES OF VIS
BELOW 0.5 MILE ARE LOWER TONIGHT, WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN WE SAW
THIS MORNING.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH SOME
MOISTURE INCREASING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. CAMS
SHOW A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, WITH WITH A TOUCH OF
DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY/TUESDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TOMORROW MORNING,
ALLOWING FOR BROAD SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION. DURING THE MORNING HOURS A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SOME ELEVATED STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT TO SEE STORMS TO OUR
WEST (AND POSSIBLY NORTH) MONDAY MORNING. AS THAT ACTIVITY
PROPAGATES NORTHEASTWARD, A STORM OR TWO COULD MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF MUCAPE, HIGH LAPSE RATES, AND BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KTS
COULD LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS THAT GENERATE LARGE HAIL. HIGH RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR BETTER CHANCES FOR THIS SCENARIO
REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DESPITE ANY MORNING
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER, THE REGION WILL SEE AMPLE
RECOVERY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PROMOTING WARM ADVECTION AND
PUSHING CAPE UPWARDS OF 1000-1500 J/KG. BULK SHEAR WILL STILL BE
BOUNTIFUL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING INTO MANITOBA. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WITH THE SEVERE RISK FADING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THEREAFTER, SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAKER STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES WEST TO
EAST. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS HIGH AS 0.75IN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
KOOCHICHING AND ITASCA COUNTIES, WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING OFF TO
AROUND 0.10IN CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
MID WEEK:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
THE 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TURNS MORE ZONAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST TERMINALS
THROUGH THE CURRENT 00Z FORECAST PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS/FOG OFF THE SOUTHWEST ARM OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING THAT COULD IMPACT
KDLH AND TO A LESSER EXTENT KHIB/KHYR, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF UPDATE. ALSO EXPECT SOME LLWS AT
INL TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET.
SOME SMOKE IS PRESENT ALOFT AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, SO HAVE KEPT AT LEAST
FEW MENTION IN THE TAFS TO COVER THIS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STARTING LATE MONDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST. HIGH-RESOLUTION WEATHER MODELS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL (30
PERCENT) FOR RAIN NEAR KINL MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WITH DRY AIR
IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS, HAVE ONLY KEPT THIS POTENTIAL AS A
PROB30 MENTION FOR NOW.
SPORADIC SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT IN NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET, WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY, WITH GUSTS INCREASING
TO 18-25 KTS ACROSS THE AREA, BEING STRONGEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND AT KBRD.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KTS. WAVES WILL BUILD TO AROUND 2FT AT
THE HEAD OF THE LAKE. MONDAY MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
MONDAY, AT 5-10 KTS. MONDAY NIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ENTER
FROM THE WEST WITH WINDS CHANGING TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10-15 KTS. WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25KTS, SMALL CRAFTS MIGHT
BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH LOW FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. WINDS OVER NORTHWEST WI MAINTAIN A MORE VARIABLE
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MN WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST, WITH GUSTS TO 18MPH.
MIN RHS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
SPOTS DROPPING TO THE 33-38% RANGE. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
RETURN TOMORROW. LOOKING AT POTENTIALLY TWO DIFFERENT ROUNDS.
THE FIRST ONE IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE WEAKEST IN THE
BATCH, AND MIGHT RESULT IN ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH A COLD FRONT MARCHING WEST TO EAST.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...HA
FIRE WEATHER...HA
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