115
FXUS63 KDLH 031126
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
626 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM CHANCES RETURN THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MN. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS. TORNADO THREAT IS LOW
- MOSTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
HIGH PRESSURE IS JAUNTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR BROAD
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION.
RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS A FEW LIGHT ECHOES CRUISING ACROSS NORTHERN
MN, BUT NO REPORTS OF RAIN REACHING THE GROUND WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
MORE VIGOROUS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AS A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SOME ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONG INSTABILITY (1000-2000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE) WITH A BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KTS COULD LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS
THAT GENERATE LARGE HAIL. THE CURRENT SUITE OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE
FAVORS THIS BEING FARTHER WEST OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA WHERE THE HREF IS
HIGHLIGHTING SOME SWATHS OF HIGHER UPDRAFT HELICITY. HIGH RES
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT RUNS
SUGGESTING THAT THIS MORNING ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY STAY WEST OF THE
REGION AND POSSIBLY CLIP INTO KOOCHICHING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE OUT WEST THIS MORNING AS
THE SEVERE RISK IS STILL CATEGORIZED AS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF
5).
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP IN EVENING. DESPITE THE MORNING
STORM ACTIVITY, THE REGION WILL SEE AMPLE RECOVERY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW PROMOTING WARM ADVECTION AND PUSHING MLCAPE UPWARDS OF 1000-
2000 J/KG. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PERIOD TRIGGERING CONVECTION. BULK SHEAR WILL STILL BE
BOUNTIFUL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING INTO MANITOBA. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED
OUT AT THIS TIME, BUT THE BETTER STREAMWISE VORTICITY LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY, WHICH THEN FADES AS THE STORM MODE
BECOMES MORE LINEAR AS IT TRACKS INTO OUR CWA. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH THE SEVERE RISK FADING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREAFTER,
SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAKER STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES WEST TO EAST.
MID WEEK:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
THE 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TURNS MORE ZONAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT INL AT
TIMES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY WITH GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER 20 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE OUT OF THE WEST
BRINGING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS THE
FRONT PASSES OVER THE TERMINALS EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
WEST
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WIND GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 KTS. WITH THE COLD FRONT, EXPECTED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
ENTER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR
TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY BEING
NEEDED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE HAS
DEPARTED TO THE SOUTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTH TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS OF 20-
25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. MIN RHS REMAIN IN QUESTION, NOT EXPECTING
VERY DRY CONDITIONS BUT SOME OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER OR MID 30S FOR RH. HOWEVER, EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM MAY KEEP THOSE RHS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING. STORM STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TO WANE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY EXITING THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHLAND, EXPECT A WIND SHIFT FROM OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO OUT OF THE WEST.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CDT
TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-144>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ140.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...BRITT
FIRE WEATHER...BRITT
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