569
FXUS63 KDLH 040545
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1245 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM CHANCES RETURN THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MN. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS. TORNADO THREAT IS LOW
- MOSTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
THE NORTHLAND IS IN A BIT OF A LULL, STORM WISE, THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S OVER THE
ARROWHEAD WHILE ELSEWHERE, TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. A
STALLED FRONT IS SITTING JUST TO OUR WEST, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS REMAINING BACK OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE, BRINGING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
THIS MORNING'S INL SOUNDING SHOWED A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION (AND
A CAP AROUND 800MB). IF THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO
BUILD MORE INSTABILITY, AN AREA OF 50-60KTS OF BULK SHEAR IS
NOSING INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND KOOCH COUNTY. IF A STORM
CAN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, IT COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. IF IT
CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED, THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A
TORNADO. BUT, FORCING LOOKS WEAK, AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TO KICK THE FRONT EASTWARD.
THE MAIN IMPACT PERIOD WILL BE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, AS A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST AND MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MN. THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY 1000-1500
J/KG (MUCAPE), 40-60KT OF BULK SHEAR RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT, AND
LAPSE RATES OF AT LEAST 7C/KM. STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE,
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT A
TORNADO WITHIN THE BROKEN LINE.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE SEVERE RISK FADING IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS INSTABILITY AND WIND FEATURES WEAKEN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WI
AND THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW.
MID WEEK:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR FOR MID WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTS BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN CONUS. DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
DESPITE THE TROUGHING ALOFT. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING BETTER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE
70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FROM
HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST DLH. HYR MAY SEE LITTLE TO NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FROM THE STORMS BY EARLY MORNING. ONCE STORMS PASS,
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND WINDS UP TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
MARINE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. WITH THE COLD FRONT, EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO ENTER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND MIDNIGHT, WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR
TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY
BEING NEEDED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
MOISTURE IS INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH
RHS REMAINING IN THE 60-70% RANGE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS STILL WARMING AND SOME POSSIBLE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, MIXING IS POSSIBLE INTO MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, WITH MIN RHS FALLING BELOW 50%. ELSEWHERE, LESS CLOUD
COVER HAS ALLOWED WARMER TEMPS AND RHS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
40S. WINDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25MPH
ALREADY ACROSS THE WEST. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS TO SPREAD INTO
THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STORM STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED TO WANE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY
EXITING THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND
THE FRONT, DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY,
MIN RHS FALL TO AROUND 40% WITH WEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15MPH. MIN
RHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30% WEDNESDAY WITH WEAKER WINDS.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
144>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ140>143.
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...HA
FIRE WEATHER...HA
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