329
FXUS63 KDLH 041643
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1143 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING, THOUGH THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS PASSED.
- MOSTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHLAND HAVE WEAKENED AND THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAVE DWINDLED AS WELL. THERE ARE
STILL A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR INTO CANADA AND
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE TWIN PORTS AS WELL AS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MISSING
OUT ON THE WETTING RAIN FALLING WITH THE STORMS.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY EVENING WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE,
AND BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR A MORE
SEASONAL, DRIER WEEK THIS WEEK WITH SOME SUNSHINE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:
THE NORTHLAND IS IN A BIT OF A LULL, STORM WISE, THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S OVER THE
ARROWHEAD WHILE ELSEWHERE, TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. A
STALLED FRONT IS SITTING JUST TO OUR WEST, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS REMAINING BACK OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE, BRINGING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
THIS MORNING'S INL SOUNDING SHOWED A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION (AND
A CAP AROUND 800MB). IF THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO
BUILD MORE INSTABILITY, AN AREA OF 50-60KTS OF BULK SHEAR IS
NOSING INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND KOOCH COUNTY. IF A STORM
CAN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, IT COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. IF IT
CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED, THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A
TORNADO. BUT, FORCING LOOKS WEAK, AS WE WAIT FOR THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TO KICK THE FRONT EASTWARD.
THE MAIN IMPACT PERIOD WILL BE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, AS A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST AND MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MN. THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY 1000-1500
J/KG (MUCAPE), 40-60KT OF BULK SHEAR RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT, AND
LAPSE RATES OF AT LEAST 7C/KM. STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE,
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT A
TORNADO WITHIN THE BROKEN LINE.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE SEVERE RISK FADING IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS INSTABILITY AND WIND FEATURES WEAKEN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WI
AND THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW.
MID WEEK:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR FOR MID WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTS BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN CONUS. DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
DESPITE THE TROUGHING ALOFT. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING BETTER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE
70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED MVFR CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WHICH COULD VERGE ON
BROKEN COVERAGE AT TIMES. EXPECT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEN A CLEARING OF SKIES AND CALMING OF
WINDS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME FOG AT HYR
OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
AT THIS TIME. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
STRONGER WINDS AHEAD AND ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT ALL ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS MORNING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
A COMBINATION OF LOWER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL
LEAD TO SIMILAR MINIMUM RHS AS YESTERDAY, WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH BELOW 40% FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST GENERALLY AT 15 MPH OR LESS, BUT SOME GUSTS COULD
REACH 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BORDERLANDS AND THE
ARROWHEAD. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRIER, WITH MINIMUM
RH VALUES DOWN IN THE LOWER 30S AND WIND GUSTS 15-20 MPH. THOSE
ARE TWO DAYS WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON, BUT NO FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...KML
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...LEVENS
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML
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