803
FXUS63 KDLH 052130
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
430 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SPORADIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW OVER THE NEXT WEEK, BUT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
INITIALLY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO FAVOR A DRY FORECAST PRIOR TO
00Z. THEREAFTER, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERS, THE LOW LEVEL
JET MODESTLY INCREASES AND A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PROPAGATE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH OF THE MAIN WAVE,
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
WITH LIMITED BUOYANCY, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND BIT BETTER BUOYANCY BUILDING AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOW.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK, NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS FAVORED ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THIS
OVERALL LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN FAVORS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE
MAIN STORM TRACK IS FAVORED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND,
HOWEVER, LOW PREDICTABILITY IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FASTER FLOW
ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WOULD PRESENT A NEAR DAILY, SPORADIC
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE). OVERALL, WITH LIMITED BUOYANCY, SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME HEALTHY CUMULUS CLOUD PRODUCTION INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD FAVOR KEEPING SOME FEW/SCT050
LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIXING PERIOD, ENDING AROUND 00Z. WINDS
WILL BREEZE TO 15-18KT GUSTS THROUGH THAT TIME, BECOMING LIGHTER
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS RETURN AND BECOME STRONGER BY
AROUND 15Z, WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS AS THE DIRECTION SHIFTS TOWARDS
180-200. LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FEW250 TO SCT250 BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING JUST ENOUGH
SATURATION AND OMEGA TO JUSTIFY THROWING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
IN. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, WITH VFR FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
UPDATED AT 428 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY OVER THE SOUTHWEST ARM AND ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE. MOST ZONES END THURSDAY EVENING AND AT THIS POINT,
BUT THE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS FORECAST
INTO FRIDAY DAYTIME KEEP THE GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE ZONES
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR GRAND PORTAGE WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS AND WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KTS. HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS NEAR THE TWIN PORTS ARE
POSSIBLE (50-70 PERCENT CHANCE) AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
THURSDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
RANGE FROM 30-40 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THE I-35
CORRIDOR, AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA, TO 40-50 PERCENT
FURTHER WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THERE IS A DRIER
SCENARIO WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD FALL IN THE UPPER 20
PERCENT RANGE FOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY. WHILE NOT LIKELY, IF DEEPER MIXING
OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD RESULT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-23
MPH.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY
FOR LSZ140.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
LSZ141>146.
DISCUSSION...PA
AVIATION...DLH
MARINE...PA/NLY
FIRE WEATHER...PA
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