227
FXUS63 KDLH 061733
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1233 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SPORADIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW OVER THE NEXT WEEK, BUT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CHANCES REMAIN LOWER (<40%) FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA DUE TO
LINGERING DRY AIR, BUT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO
FRIDAY, AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL HAVE A BETTER LIKELIHOOD TO
SEE PRECIPITATION. A CAP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY,
BUT A FEW STRONG ELEVATED STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH HAIL
UP TO AN INCH AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
INITIALLY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO FAVOR A DRY FORECAST PRIOR TO
00Z. THEREAFTER, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERS, THE LOW LEVEL
JET MODESTLY INCREASES AND A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PROPAGATE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH OF THE MAIN WAVE,
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
WITH LIMITED BUOYANCY, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND BIT BETTER BUOYANCY BUILDING AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOW.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK, NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS FAVORED ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THIS
OVERALL LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN FAVORS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE
MAIN STORM TRACK IS FAVORED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND,
HOWEVER, LOW PREDICTABILITY IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FASTER FLOW
ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WOULD PRESENT A NEAR DAILY, SPORADIC
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE). OVERALL, WITH LIMITED BUOYANCY, SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIMING AND LOCATION
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, SO HAVE ONLY ADDED A VCSH MENTION AT INL WITH
THIS UPDATE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS
THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AT DLH AND HIB.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY, LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT LATER THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED, AND WAVES AROUND
4-5 FT ARE EXPECTED UP NEAR GRAND PORTAGE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
TODAY WILL START OUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND
50 DEGREES. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO MINIMUM RHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH
VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL
ALSO INCREASE TODAY, WITH WINDS UP TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25
MPH. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY. MOST WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION, BUT AREAS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN COULD SEE UP TO A
HALF INCH FRIDAY EVENING.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ140.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ141>146.
UPDATE...KML
DISCUSSION...PA
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML
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