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FXUS63 KDLH 062003
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
303 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND FAR NORTHERN MONTANA. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED FROM ANOTHER LOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
SHORE OF HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO,
SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA AND INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE NORTH AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WAS CREATING GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
MPH RECORDED. HEADING INTO TONIGHT, THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO
THE SOUTH AND BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY AROUND
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, BUT WITH DRY
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND.
THE FRONT WILL WORK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, REACHING THE NORTH SHORE AND
TWIN PORTS BY AROUND MIDDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
MORNING AS IT WORKS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MEANWHILE,
INCREASING MOISTURE AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WILL LEAD TO CAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG TO A FEW POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 20
KNOTS, SO ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW END WITH MAINLY PULSE-
TYPE STORMS. DECENT 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ABOVE 7C/KM AND DCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WILL RESULT IN A LOW END THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CHANCES FOR
STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CURRENT TIMING,
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN TO START THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
RETURNING MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIMING AND LOCATION
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, SO HAVE ONLY ADDED A VCSH MENTION AT INL WITH
THIS UPDATE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS
THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AT DLH AND HIB.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH SHORE, THE TWIN
PORTS AREA, AND THE NORTHERN BAYFIELD PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FRIDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND
PORTAGE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LINGERING WAVES. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND MAY LEAD TO
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ALONG PARTS OF THE NORTH
SHORE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 30 MPH
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL WILL BE FROM THE I-35
CORRIDOR EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, UNLESS A STORM PASSES OVERHEAD, RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REACH INTO
THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 40 TO 55%
RANGE. LOWER RH VALUES OF 35 TO 40% WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST
TO 20 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD SATURDAY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ140.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ141>146.
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH
FIRE WEATHER...BJH
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