382
FXUS63 KDLH 071809
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
109 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 (SLIGHT RISK) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
- THREATS WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
TODAY INCLUDE LARGE HAIL TO PING PONG BALL SIZE, DAMAGING
WINDS TO 60 MPH, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING.
- FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH SPORADIC, DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK, LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK, FOR
MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. A MARGINAL RISK, LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK, EXTENDS
INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN MINNESOTA. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A COMBINATION OF BOTH LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
BENEATH THE CAP, AND ANVIL SPREADING ACROSS FROM STORMS FURTHER
SOUTH IN MINNESOTA. THE LONGER THIS CLOUD COVER HOLDS, THE LESS
BUOYANCY WILL BUILD WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT. IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO DISSIPATE SOME, MLCAPE VALUES ON
THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG COULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KTS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. HOWEVER,
THIS MODEST SHEAR WILL PLACE SOMEWHAT OF A LIMIT ON STORM
ORGANIZATION, INTENSITY AND THE HAZARDS. PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE
LARGE HAIL TO PING PONG BALL SIZE, DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. THE TIME OF THE
PEAK THREAT IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z (4PM-7 PM CDT).
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK, QUASI ZONAL FLOW IS FAVORED ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THIS
OVERALL LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN FAVORS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE MAIN STORM
TRACK IS FAVORED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND, HOWEVER, LOW
PREDICTABILITY IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FASTER FLOW ALOFT AND
DAYTIME HEATING WOULD PRESENT A NEAR DAILY, SPORADIC COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE). OVERALL, WITH LIMITED BUOYANCY, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
LIKELY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
IFR/MVFR STRATUS FROM KBRD THROUGH KDLH AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR
WILL LIFT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA, VFR CUMULUS FIELDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND IFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND RAINFALL FROM TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
ON SATURDAY.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SOUTHWEST TURNING WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 15 KTS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WAVES WILL BE 1 FOOT OR LESS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS, ALONG WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO WATER LIGHTNING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
MOSTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT
FOR MOST AREAS, LOWEST ACROSS THE PINE BARRENS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP (20-40 PERCENT
CHANCE) NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA, FOCUSING ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE 70S TO
THE LOWER 80S, WITH HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
45-55 PERCENT.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...KML
DISCUSSION...PA
AVIATION...PA
MARINE...PA
FIRE WEATHER...PA
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