504
FXUS63 KDLH 080735
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
235 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY FOR
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH SPORADIC, NEAR DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAVE FEATURED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE COOLED INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S, AND
LIGHT WEST WINDS. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE EARLY THIS MORNING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE RAIN FELL OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS. AS THE SUN RISES, THE FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF,
LEAVING BEHIND A BEAUTIFUL SATURDAY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND
COMFORTABLE DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID-SEVENTIES TO
LOWER EIGHTIES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
THE QUIET WEATHER GIVES WAY TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN STARTING
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD IN
COMBINATION WITH A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL CREATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, INITIALLY DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS IT WILL BE
ELEVATED, WITH LITTLE SURFACE BASED CAPE TO ACCESS, AND MARGINAL
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE THIS MEANS WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID SEVENTIES TO LOW 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK, LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK, FOR
MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. A MARGINAL RISK, LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK, EXTENDS
INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN MINNESOTA. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A COMBINATION OF BOTH LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
BENEATH THE CAP, AND ANVIL SPREADING ACROSS FROM STORMS FURTHER
SOUTH IN MINNESOTA. THE LONGER THIS CLOUD COVER HOLDS, THE LESS
BUOYANCY WILL BUILD WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT. IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO DISSIPATE SOME, MLCAPE VALUES ON
THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG COULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KTS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. HOWEVER,
THIS MODEST SHEAR WILL PLACE SOMEWHAT OF A LIMIT ON STORM
ORGANIZATION, INTENSITY AND THE HAZARDS. PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE
LARGE HAIL TO PING PONG BALL SIZE, DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. THE TIME OF THE
PEAK THREAT IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z (4PM-7 PM CDT).
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK, QUASI ZONAL FLOW IS FAVORED ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THIS
OVERALL LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN FAVORS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE MAIN STORM
TRACK IS FAVORED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND, HOWEVER, LOW
PREDICTABILITY IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FASTER FLOW ALOFT AND
DAYTIME HEATING WOULD PRESENT A NEAR DAILY, SPORADIC COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE). OVERALL, WITH LIMITED BUOYANCY, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
LIKELY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE TO RAINFALL ON FRIDAY. LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOG
TONIGHT. AFTER ANY FOG BURNS OFF SATURDAY MORNING, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY WITH A CUMULUS FIELD
DEVELOPING WITH CLOUD BASES ABOVE 5KFT. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 00Z SATURDAY OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW I HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH GROUP FOR KHIB WHERE
PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY, REACHING 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. THIS
MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NORTH OF TACONITE HARBOR
AS WAVES BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER AND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST FOR SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT, WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES OVER THE PINE BARRENS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN MODEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
IMPROVE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES. SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND THEN
SLIDE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RISE TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. RAIN CHANCES TO
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...LE
DISCUSSION...PA
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE
FIRE WEATHER...LE
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