844
FXUS63 KDLH 081444
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
944 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAVE FEATURED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE COOLED INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S, AND
LIGHT WEST WINDS. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE EARLY THIS MORNING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE RAIN FELL OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS. AS THE SUN RISES, THE FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF,
LEAVING BEHIND A BEAUTIFUL SATURDAY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND
COMFORTABLE DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID-SEVENTIES TO
LOWER EIGHTIES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
THE QUIET WEATHER GIVES WAY TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN STARTING
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD IN
COMBINATION WITH A WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL CREATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, INITIALLY DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS IT WILL BE
ELEVATED, WITH LITTLE SURFACE BASED CAPE TO ACCESS, AND MARGINAL
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE THIS MEANS WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID SEVENTIES TO LOW 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK, LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK, FOR
MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. A MARGINAL RISK, LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK, EXTENDS
INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN MINNESOTA. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW
MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A COMBINATION OF BOTH LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
BENEATH THE CAP, AND ANVIL SPREADING ACROSS FROM STORMS FURTHER
SOUTH IN MINNESOTA. THE LONGER THIS CLOUD COVER HOLDS, THE LESS
BUOYANCY WILL BUILD WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT. IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO DISSIPATE SOME, MLCAPE VALUES ON
THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG COULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KTS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. HOWEVER,
THIS MODEST SHEAR WILL PLACE SOMEWHAT OF A LIMIT ON STORM
ORGANIZATION, INTENSITY AND THE HAZARDS. PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE
LARGE HAIL TO PING PONG BALL SIZE, DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. THE TIME OF THE
PEAK THREAT IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z (4PM-7 PM CDT).
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK, QUASI ZONAL FLOW IS FAVORED ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THIS
OVERALL LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN FAVORS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE MAIN STORM
TRACK IS FAVORED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND, HOWEVER, LOW
PREDICTABILITY IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FASTER FLOW ALOFT AND
DAYTIME HEATING WOULD PRESENT A NEAR DAILY, SPORADIC COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE). OVERALL, WITH LIMITED BUOYANCY, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
LIKELY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE TO RAINFALL ON FRIDAY. SEVERAL LOCATIONS
HAVE BEEN GETTING INTERMITTENT FOG WITH VISIBILITIES OF A MILE
OR LESS, BUT ONLY KHYR AND KHIB HAVE BEEN INCLUDED. THIS FOG
SHOULD LINGER FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS, THEN BURNING OFF TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON
SATURDAY WITH A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING WITH CLOUD BASES ABOVE
5KFT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THESE SHOULD
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW I HAVE
INCLUDED A -SHRA GROUP FOR KHIB AND KDLH WHERE PRECIPITATION IS
MOST LIKELY. HAVE ADDED A VCSH GROUP TO KINL AND KBRD AS THEY
SHOULD BE THE NEXT MOST LIKELY SITES.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
UPDATE 945 AM - SMALL CRAFT ADIVSORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE GRAND
MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE ZONE COVERING EARLY AFTERNOON TO MID-
EVENING TODAY.
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY, REACHING 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. THIS
MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NORTH OF TACONITE HARBOR
AS WAVES BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER AND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST FOR SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT, WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES OVER THE PINE BARRENS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN MODEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
IMPROVE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES. SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND THEN
SLIDE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RISE TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. RAIN CHANCES TO
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ140.
UPDATE...LE
DISCUSSION...PA
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE/NLY
FIRE WEATHER...LE
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