444
FXUS63 KDLH 081659
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1159 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AND CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
INCREASING CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT HAZE HIGH IN THE SKY WILL
BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. DESPITE THE HAZE, IT WILL BE A
VERY PLEASANT AND COMFORTABLE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S, AND
WITH HUMIDITY REMAINING RELATIVELY LOW.
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH THAT AREA OF FAR NORTHERN MN THIS AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING, BUT VERY DRY LOW-LEVELS LIMITS MUCH OF ANY PRECIP
FROM REACHING THE GROUND AND TO VIRGA. THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR
THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN WITHOUT ANY WEATHER MENTIONS FOR
THIS CASE.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH A DEEPER VERTICALLY STACKED
HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MANITOBA AND
NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A BAND OF HIGH-BASED
RAIN SHOWERS INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING, THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IF YOU LIVE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE INTO THE ARROWHEAD, YOU COULD SEE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS, LOCALIZED UP TO HALF AN INCH. LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY BUILDS INTO
CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON THE NOSE OF AN ICOMING
LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS SETUP MAY (20-30% CHANCE) HELP TRIGGER A
FEW NON-SEVERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MN
AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASED DEWPOINTS EARLY SUNDAY THAT KEEPS
A WETTING RAINFALL AROUND A QUARTER-INCH OF LOCALIZED RAINFALL
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF A STALLED WEATHER FRONT LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SETUP WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF MID-AUGUST. THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL ALSO KEEP WITH THE PATTERN OF A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND HELPING CREATE A 10 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY OR TWO.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO STAY FOCUSED
WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TODAY WITH
INCREASING DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SLIGHT HAZE FROM SMOKE
ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS APPROACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER 00-03Z, RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FIRST IMPACT KINL AND KHIB
BEFORE SPREADING TOWARD KDLH, KBRD, AND KHYR OVERNIGHT. THE
SHOWERS, ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT, WILL BRING LOCALIZED
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS LAST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM THIS EVENING FROM GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON, CAUSING WAVES TO BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET. BOATERS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE OPEN WATERS AND EASTERLY INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ARM AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS, ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE
TO 1 FOOT OR LESS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE IS A 30 TO
60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
WINDS FULLY SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS MONDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT. THE LOWEST
HUMIDITY WILL BE FOUND OVER THE PINE BARRENS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND INTO THE INTERIOR ARROWHEAD. WEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN MODEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SYSTEM. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND THEN SLIDE SLOWLY EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL OF 0.1 TO 0.5
INCHES LOCALLY IS FORECAST IN LOCALIZED PARTS OF THE IRON RANGE
TO BORDERLANDS AND EASTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR ARROWHEAD LATE
TONIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RISE TO 45 TO 55
PERCENT ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. NORTH-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN DISTRICTS WILL SEE CONTINUED 20-30% RAIN
SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE REST OF THE REGION IS
FORECAST TO BE DRY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT FORECAST INTO NEXT
WEEK, BUT EVERY 36 TO 48 HOURS THERE ARE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...NLY
FIRE WEATHER...NLY
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