180
FXUS63 KDLH 091730
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEK.
- THERE ARE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, DRIVEN BY A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD, WHERE LOCALIZED TOTALS
BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE RAIN
SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON,
YIELDING A MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. LIGHT
WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL PROMOTE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. ANY FOG WILL
CLEAR QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY, LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY.
A SERIES OF WEAK ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL REINTRODUCE PERIODIC RAIN
CHANCES STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP CREATE A 10 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NON-THUNDERSTORMS EVERY
DAY OR TWO. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL STAY FOCUSED WELL TO
OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS
WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
INCREASING CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT HAZE HIGH IN THE SKY WILL
BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. DESPITE THE HAZE, IT WILL BE A
VERY PLEASANT AND COMFORTABLE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S, AND
WITH HUMIDITY REMAINING RELATIVELY LOW.
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH THAT AREA OF FAR NORTHERN MN THIS AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING, BUT VERY DRY LOW-LEVELS LIMITS MUCH OF ANY PRECIP
FROM REACHING THE GROUND AND TO VIRGA. THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR
THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN WITHOUT ANY WEATHER MENTIONS FOR
THIS CASE.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH A DEEPER VERTICALLY STACKED
HUDSON BAY LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MANITOBA AND
NORTHWEST ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A BAND OF HIGH-BASED
RAIN SHOWERS INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING, THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IF YOU LIVE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE INTO THE ARROWHEAD, YOU COULD SEE
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS, LOCALIZED UP TO HALF AN INCH. LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY BUILDS INTO
CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON THE NOSE OF AN INCOMING
LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS SETUP MAY (20-30% CHANCE) HELP TRIGGER A
FEW NON-SEVERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MN
AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASED DEWPOINTS EARLY SUNDAY THAT KEEPS
A WETTING RAINFALL AROUND A QUARTER-INCH OF LOCALIZED RAINFALL
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF A STALLED WEATHER FRONT LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH.
THIS SETUP WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF MID-AUGUST. THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL ALSO KEEP WITH THE PATTERN OF A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND HELPING CREATE A 10 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY OR TWO.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO STAY FOCUSED
WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
A DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD IS BUILDING FIRST IN FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. EXPECT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
AN ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTING ANY TERMINALS THOUGH
GIVEN THE WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS. HAVE
PLACED A VICINITY SHOWERS MENTION IN THE HAYWARD TAF THOUGH WITH
THIS ISSUANCE. TONIGHT, THERE ARE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SIGNALS FOR
IFR TO LIFR FOG SO TEMPOS WERE USED TO PLACE EVEN LOWER
CATEGORIES INTO THE HAYWARD AND HIBBING TAFS. LIGHT WINDS THIS
TAF PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND
TONIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 FOOT OR LESS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY WITH LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS, MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING MAY BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING HAVE BROUGHT SCATTERED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.1
TO 0.5 INCHES, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE. ONCE
THESE SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AROUND 5 MPH, WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL BE SLOWER TO
CLEAR, AND RH VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGHER THERE. CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE PATCHY
FOG LIKELY. MONDAY CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH RH
VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 PERCENT, WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. PERIODIC NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN EVERY 36 TO 48 HOURS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...LE
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...LE
FIRE WEATHER...LE
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