777
FXUS63 KDLH 242355
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
655 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
- SEASONAL, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE LATER PART OF THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TONIGHT:
HIGH PRESSURE HAS EXITED THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS STREAMING BACK INTO THE NORTHLAND. SATELLITE SHOWS A
SWATH OF CLOUD COVER SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND ENGULFING
THE REGION. THE RADAR DOES SHOW SOME WEAK ECHOES ACROSS THE REGION
BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AND IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT THROUGH THE
LOW LEVELS WHICH IS LIKELY PREVENTING ANY PRECIPITATION FROM HITTING
THE GROUND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL LEAD TO
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
INITIATE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND TRAVEL EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BETTER INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN TO OUR WEST WHERE SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK
OUTLINED. AS THESE STORMS MOVE EAST THE THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THEY WILL OUTRUN BOTH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE BULK SHEAR. SOME OF THE LATEST CAMS ARE MAINTAINING A FEW
MORE VIGOROUS CELLS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS OUR WEST,
BUT LARGELY EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN INTO SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY
MORNING.
TUESDAY:
ONGOING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS ACTIVITY. DESPITE
THE CLOUD COVER AND MORNING PRECIPITATION, WE STILL EXPECT AMPLE
RECOVERY OF MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODEST INSTABILITY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SHOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG. BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. PAIRING THESE TOGETHER SHOULD RESULT IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE
LATEST HREF IS ALSO DEPICTING A FEW IMPRESSIVE UPDRAFT HELICITY
TRACKS SUGGESTING SOME SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. MAIN HAZARDS LOOK TO
BE HAIL OF 1.5" POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 65 MPH. A TORNADO CAN'T
FULLY BE RULED OUT AS WELL WITH STRONG 3CAPE AND AMPLE SURFACE
VORTICITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PEAK SEVERE WEATHER TIMING
LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 3PM - 10PM. SPC HAS OUR REGION HIGHLIGHTED IN A
MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5).
WEDNESDAY:
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FLOWING BACK ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE CHURNING OVERHEAD AS IT SCUTTLES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THOUGH WITH
ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.
INTO THE WEEKEND:
ANOTHER STINT OF QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER BEGINS THURSDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MANITOBA EXPANDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE 70S WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. WE MAY SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION TO START THE WEEKEND AS IMPULSES
ALOFT BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IN PLACE. CROSS BARRIER FLOW THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MAY DEVELOP A LOW IN THE DAKOTAS THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. STILL PLENTY OF DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING AMONGST MODELS,
FOR NOW WE HAVE 20-30% POPS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL
SLIDE OUR DIRECTION, NOT APPROACHING ANY OF THE TERMINALS UNTIL
AFTER 07Z TONIGHT. THESE STORMS GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
SUNRISE, AND MAY DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING, LEAVING MAINLY VFR
CLOUD DEBRIS. ANTICIPATE A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT SOME OF THE
TERMINALS, BUT TIMING AND SITE ARE UNCERTAIN. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A FEW HOURS OF MVFR SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BEHIND THE
STORMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING, SO HAVE
LEFT AS VCTS GROUPS FOR NOW.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. TONIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO
10 KNOTS. BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
ENTERING FROM THE WEST. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO OUT OF THE WEST
WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. AN OCCASIONAL STORM
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN LATER TONIGHT AS
A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SPAWNS ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR
WESTERN MN THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LOSE STEAM AS
THE TRAVEL WEST INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
MAY END UP WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER, TOMORROW AFTERNOON WE
ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MIGRATES INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL ALSO
SWITCH TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH. QUIETER
CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM
MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...BRITT
FIRE WEATHER...BRITT
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