240
FXUS63 KDLH 251134
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
634 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING TO THE AREA, THOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.
- A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WHICH MAY
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- SEASONAL, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE LATER PART OF THIS
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TODAY:
AN INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
OVER NORTH DAKOTA HAS SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THIS EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. IT HAS ALREADY MOVED OUT OF THE PLUME
OF GREATEST INSTABILITY AND IS CURRENTLY ROOTED IN AN AREA OF
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. FOR NOW, I
EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BRING A BRIEF, HEAVY DOWNPOUR AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING TO THE AREA. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT OUR MORE FOG PRONE LOCATIONS
COULD STILL SEE REDUCED VISIBILITIES BEFORE SUNRISE. FOR TODAY,
THESE LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO A DECREASE IN
CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN, THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN BECOMES STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOW 60S WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A NARROW ZONE OF MORE THAN 1500 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED, MLCAPE WHICH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE APPROACH OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND A
COLD FRONT WILL HELP GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING,
ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS TOGETHER
WITH MULTICELLS/CLUSTERS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. WE HAVE A SLIGHT (2 OUT OF 5
LEVELS) RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FROM SPC. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR
AND MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS WILL
QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY LATE EVENING, LEAVING SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS FOR OVERNIGHT. TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE,
AND LOW TO MID 80S TO THE SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY:
WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER, AS THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED
EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
BECOME BREEZY, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. HIGHS WILL STILL GET
INTO THE 70S, BUT THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER. THE UPPER
LOW WHICH WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, WILL FUNNEL NORTHWEST,
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TONIGHT:
HIGH PRESSURE HAS EXITED THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS STREAMING BACK INTO THE NORTHLAND. SATELLITE SHOWS A
SWATH OF CLOUD COVER SLOWLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND ENGULFING
THE REGION. THE RADAR DOES SHOW SOME WEAK ECHOES ACROSS THE REGION
BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AND IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT THROUGH THE
LOW LEVELS WHICH IS LIKELY PREVENTING ANY PRECIPITATION FROM HITTING
THE GROUND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL LEAD TO
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
INITIATE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND TRAVEL EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BETTER INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN TO OUR WEST WHERE SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK
OUTLINED. AS THESE STORMS MOVE EAST THE THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THEY WILL OUTRUN BOTH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE BULK SHEAR. SOME OF THE LATEST CAMS ARE MAINTAINING A FEW
MORE VIGOROUS CELLS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS OUR WEST,
BUT LARGELY EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN INTO SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY
MORNING.
TUESDAY:
ONGOING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS ACTIVITY. DESPITE
THE CLOUD COVER AND MORNING PRECIPITATION, WE STILL EXPECT AMPLE
RECOVERY OF MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODEST INSTABILITY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SHOULD LEAD TO MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG. BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO BE IMPROVING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. PAIRING THESE TOGETHER SHOULD RESULT IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE
LATEST HREF IS ALSO DEPICTING A FEW IMPRESSIVE UPDRAFT HELICITY
TRACKS SUGGESTING SOME SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. MAIN HAZARDS LOOK TO
BE HAIL OF 1.5" POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 65 MPH. A TORNADO CAN'T
FULLY BE RULED OUT AS WELL WITH STRONG 3CAPE AND AMPLE SURFACE
VORTICITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PEAK SEVERE WEATHER TIMING
LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 3PM - 10PM. SPC HAS OUR REGION HIGHLIGHTED IN A
MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5).
WEDNESDAY:
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FLOWING BACK ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE CHURNING OVERHEAD AS IT SCUTTLES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES. RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THOUGH WITH
ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.
INTO THE WEEKEND:
ANOTHER STINT OF QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER BEGINS THURSDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MANITOBA EXPANDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO
THE 70S WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. WE MAY SEE
ANOTHER CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION TO START THE WEEKEND AS IMPULSES
ALOFT BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IN PLACE. CROSS BARRIER FLOW THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MAY DEVELOP A LOW IN THE DAKOTAS THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. STILL PLENTY OF DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING AMONGST MODELS,
FOR NOW WE HAVE 20-30% POPS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD EARLY
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS VERY LIKELY (60-75% CHANCE) THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. A FEW STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, LARGE HAIL TO PING PONG BALL
SIZE, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT, MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOG IS UNLIKELY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING AND TODAY WITH WAVES
GENERALLY REMAINING AT 1 FOOT OR LESS. THE PRIMARY MARINE HAZARD
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 34 KNOTS. BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST, INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
CAUSE BUILDING WAVES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BEFORE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE AGAIN THURSDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY EVENING ARE SPREADING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT.
THESE STORMS ARE GRADUALLY LOSING STEAM AS THEY TRAVEL EAST INTO
OUR REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT SCATTERSHOT. TODAY, MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 45 PERCENT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5
TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT AGAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. WEDNESDAY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL AGAIN REMAIN ABOVE 45 PERCENT, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS,
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH.
QUIET, DRY, AND LESS BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...LE
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...UNRUH
MARINE...LE
FIRE WEATHER...LE
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