127
FXUS63 KDLH 260607
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
107 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LASTS THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM TODAY.
A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THIS TIME PERIOD COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- SEASONAL, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD
OF OFF-AND-ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A WARM FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MID-DAY TODAY,
BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND ENTERING NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THESE STORMS ARE PART OF WHAT IS ROUND 1 AND ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITHIN THE SHORT-LIVED WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER MANITOBA, MINNESOTA, AND ONTARIO. AS DAYTIME
HEATING MAXIMIZES INSTABILITY, ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING FIRST IN THE FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA
BORDERLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AN ONSET TIME AROUND 3 TO
4 PM.
THE HAZARD THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS EVENING TOWARDS THE TWIN PORTS.
BY LATER THIS EVENING, CLOSER TO SUNSET, THE SEVERE THREAT MOVES
INTO INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN ARROWHEAD. SEVERE
STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING TONIGHT. BEHIND
THE FRONT, LINGERING COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT THESE WILL ONLY BRING VERY
LOCALIZED AND LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE NORTHLAND.
FOR WEDNESDAY, A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS FORECAST AND BREEZIER
POST- FRONTAL REGIME TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 30 MPH. THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COOL DOWN WILL BE
THE NORTH SHORE WITH THOSE NORTHWEST WINDS DOWNSLOPING AND
AIDING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.
THE LIGHT AND LOCALIZED RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WILL LAST INTO THE WEDNESDAY DAYTIME PERIOD, ACTUALLY INCREASING
IN COVERAGE UNDER DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. A FEW
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN
THIS REGIME OF NUMEROUS LIGHT AND VERY LOCALIZED RAIN SHOWERS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY.
MINIMAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
PASSING HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL FEEL FAIRLY DRY EACH AFTERNOON WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT
RANGE...WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND OR LESS THAN 15 MPH THOUGH
SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND, WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS UP AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A WEAK PASSING FRONT AND A LOW TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
COULD BE A TIME OF A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FURTHERMORE, STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT LATER SATURDAY OR AT SOME POINT SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A REINFORCING FRONTAL PASSAGE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WILL KEEP THE PATTERN ACTIVE, AS CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAY SPILL OVER AND SLOWLY DECAY INTO THE
NORTHLAND. PENDING ANY INCREASES IN SKY COVER OR LINGERING
PRECIPITATION, SUNDAY COULD ACTUALLY BE SOMEWHAT WARM INTO THE
MID-80S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF US HWY 2. GENERALLY MINIMAL
WEATHER CONCERNS TO START NEXT WEEK UNDER SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS NOW
MOVED EAST OF THE REGION, CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND WILL REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO
PERHAPS IFR STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING ISOLATED, OFF-AND-ON LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY, WE EXPECT THOSE
LOWER CEILINGS TO SLOWLY RISE TO AT LEAST MVFR, EVEN AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WI, MAINLY AFFECTING KINL, KHIB, KDLH AND KHYR. HAVE
HANDLED WITH VCSH GROUPS FOR NOW, BUT THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH STRONGER SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY, UP TO 20KTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 00Z WITH WINDS ALSO CALMING
DOWN TO LESS THAN 10KTS, BUT REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FEW
NON-SEVERE STORMS. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE FORECAST,
BUILDING WAVES ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 45
PERCENT TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND GUSTS TO 20
MPH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM 1500 TO 1600 THROUGH 2100 TO 2200
TODAY. A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. FOR WEDNESDAY, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL AGAIN REMAIN ABOVE 45 PERCENT, BUT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH.
THURSDAY SEES DECREASING NORTHWEST WINDS, BUT STILL SUSTAINED
5-8 MPH GUSTING TO 15 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 35 TO
45 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATER THIS WEEK HELPS CREATE EVEN
LESS WIND FOR FRIDAY, WHILE REMAINING JUST AS DRY AS THURSDAY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...NLY
FIRE WEATHER...NLY
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