627
FXUS63 KDLH 261753
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1253 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS END TONIGHT, NEARLY ALL AREAS ARE
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
- OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND,
WITH OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- A PERIOD OR TWO OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED OFF-AND-ON RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO REACH UP TO 30 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THESE WINDS
WILL BEGIN DECREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE
FOR NEARLY ALL OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER, A FEW MORE LOCALIZED AND
BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS SKIES CLEAR AND LIGHT WINDS BECOME CALM,
A CHILLY NIGHT IS FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT, COLD SPOTS WILL
REACH THE LOW 40S AND POCKETS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AN INCOMING WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL SET UP AND BRING OUR NEXT ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THESE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND,
DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS UP OVER THE AREA.
CURRENT TRENDS KEEP THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR, PARTICULARLY FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES TO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND INTO INLAND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY PM INTO MONDAY DAYTIME, THERE IS A SLIGHTLY
BETTER ENVIRONMENT PROGGED IN MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL GUIDANCE FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO MAYBE EVEN SCRAPE THE LEVELS OF SEVERE
WEATHER. IF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM THIS WEEKEND, SUNDAY
PM IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SOUTH OF US HWY 2
AND MONDAY BEING FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO MUCH OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. DRIER AND QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO RETURN BY
NEXT TUESDAY.
A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE MID 80S, AND IF THE WARMER GUIDANCE VERIFIES, SOME SPOTS IN
THE WARM SECTOR COULD EVEN SCRAPE THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER, THE
EXACT LOCATION OF WEEKEND STORMS AND LINGERING SKY COVER WILL
HEAVILY INFLUENCE WHETHER THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
REALIZED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL BRING PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS TO REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AS
SHOWERS SLOWLY EXIT. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCAL SITES.
HAYWARD MAY SEE IFR TO POTENTIALLY LIFR VISIBILITY LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM GROUND FOG.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY, MAINTAINING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ALONG PARTS OF THE NORTH
SHORE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES TO 2 FEET WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING UNDER 10
KNOTS AND WAVES SETTLING TO A FOOT OR LESS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING, REMAINING MIXED OUT THOUGH ALONG THE NORTH SHORE
RIDGELINE. A DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES ON THURSDAY, DROPPING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE.
HOWEVER, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 MPH OR LESS.
SIMILARLY AIR WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY, BUT WINDS WILL BECOME
MUCH LIGHTER AND VARIABLE, LIMITING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE
NEXT ROUND OF OFF-AND-ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT FORECAST, BUT LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS ARE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HWY 2 INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ141-
142.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...NLY
FIRE WEATHER...NLY
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