171
FXUS63 KDLH 270534
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1234 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEARLY ALL AREAS ARE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
- OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND,
WITH OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- A PERIOD OR TWO OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
THE LARGE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA STILL
CONTINUES TO LINGER FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND, AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL FILL THE SKY THURSDAY AS WELL AS
LOW CHANCES FOR SPRINKLES TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW 40S AND UPPER
30S.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ISN'T
GREAT WITH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE AND LOW MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALOFT THAT WOULD INHIBIT STORM GROWTH OVERNIGHT PAST
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE STILL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
DAYTIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED OFF-AND-ON RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO REACH UP TO 30 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THESE WINDS
WILL BEGIN DECREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE
FOR NEARLY ALL OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER, A FEW MORE LOCALIZED AND
BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS SKIES CLEAR AND LIGHT WINDS BECOME CALM,
A CHILLY NIGHT IS FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT, COLD SPOTS WILL
REACH THE LOW 40S AND POCKETS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AN INCOMING WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL SET UP AND BRING OUR NEXT ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THESE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND,
DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS UP OVER THE AREA.
CURRENT TRENDS KEEP THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR, PARTICULARLY FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES TO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND INTO INLAND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY PM INTO MONDAY DAYTIME, THERE IS A SLIGHTLY
BETTER ENVIRONMENT PROGGED IN MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL GUIDANCE FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO MAYBE EVEN SCRAPE THE LEVELS OF SEVERE
WEATHER. IF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM THIS WEEKEND, SUNDAY
PM IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SOUTH OF US HWY 2
AND MONDAY BEING FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO MUCH OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. DRIER AND QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO RETURN BY
NEXT TUESDAY.
A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE MID 80S, AND IF THE WARMER GUIDANCE VERIFIES, SOME SPOTS IN
THE WARM SECTOR COULD EVEN SCRAPE THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER, THE
EXACT LOCATION OF WEEKEND STORMS AND LINGERING SKY COVER WILL
HEAVILY INFLUENCE WHETHER THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
REALIZED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD SAVE FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW, HIGHEST CHANCES FOR LOWERING
VISIBILITIES ARE HIB, INL, AND HYR. HYR HAS ALREADY BOUNCED UP
AND DOWN TONIGHT, AND THE OTHERS ARE NOT CLOSE BEHIND. OTHER
SITES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF FOG PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST UP TO 15 KTS,
AND THURSDAY WILL ALSO LIKELY HOLD SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS AT
AROUND 4KFT.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS AND WAVES LESS THAN A FOOT. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE, BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. STORM
CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
A DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES TODAY INTO FRIDAY, DROPPING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE. HOWEVER,
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 MPH OR LESS TODAY AND
EVEN LIGHTER FOR FRIDAY UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT ROUND
OF OFF- AND- ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND LASTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT FORECAST, BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS ARE MOST
LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HWY 2 INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...KML
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML
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