252
FXUS63 KDLH 271723
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1223 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEARLY ALL AREAS ARE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
- OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND,
WITH OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- A PERIOD OR TWO OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED OFF-AND-ON RAIN
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO REACH UP TO 30 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THESE WINDS
WILL BEGIN DECREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE
FOR NEARLY ALL OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER, A FEW MORE LOCALIZED AND
BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS SKIES CLEAR AND LIGHT WINDS BECOME CALM,
A CHILLY NIGHT IS FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT, COLD SPOTS WILL
REACH THE LOW 40S AND POCKETS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AN INCOMING WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WILL SET UP AND BRING OUR NEXT ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THESE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND,
DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS UP OVER THE AREA.
CURRENT TRENDS KEEP THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR, PARTICULARLY FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES TO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND INTO INLAND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY PM INTO MONDAY DAYTIME, THERE IS A SLIGHTLY
BETTER ENVIRONMENT PROGGED IN MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL GUIDANCE FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO MAYBE EVEN SCRAPE THE LEVELS OF SEVERE
WEATHER. IF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM THIS WEEKEND, SUNDAY
PM IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SOUTH OF US HWY 2
AND MONDAY BEING FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO MUCH OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. DRIER AND QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO RETURN BY
NEXT TUESDAY.
A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE MID 80S, AND IF THE WARMER GUIDANCE VERIFIES, SOME SPOTS IN
THE WARM SECTOR COULD EVEN SCRAPE THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER, THE
EXACT LOCATION OF WEEKEND STORMS AND LINGERING SKY COVER WILL
HEAVILY INFLUENCE WHETHER THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
REALIZED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS PROPAGATING NORTH
TO SOUTH. OVERNIGHT, RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL QUICKLY ERODE AROUND
13- 14Z.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS AND WAVES LESS THAN A FOOT. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE, BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. STORM
CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
A DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES TODAY INTO FRIDAY, DROPPING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE. HOWEVER,
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 MPH OR LESS TODAY AND
EVEN LIGHTER FOR FRIDAY UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT ROUND
OF OFF- AND- ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND LASTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT FORECAST, BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS ARE MOST
LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HWY 2 INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML
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