968
FXUS63 KDLH 280540
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1240 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING,
THEN DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
- QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY BE THE NEXT CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS, THOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER SIGNALS ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/FRIDAY:
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER THE NORTHERN ONTARIO
KEEPING THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE WE HAVE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT EXPANDS ACROSS MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS
COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS BUILDING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S. OVERNIGHT, RAPID
RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING. IF
FOG DOES DEVELOP IT WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. FRIDAY IS
ALSO SHAPING UP TO BE AN INACTIVE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO DEPART THE REGION AND WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO INCREASE A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE
LOW 80S.
WEEKEND:
THE WEATHER PATTERN TURNS ACTIVE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. CROSS
BARRIER FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO SOME
RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE 12Z SUITE OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A HIGH AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN
THE QPF FIELDS BUT LEVERAGING THE ENSEMBLES SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE NBM IS
HIGHLIGHTING POPS OF 40-60%. BOTH THE LOW PRESSURE AND LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
PERSIST BUT BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO GIVE US ANOTHER DOSE OF MOISTURE. THE GFS IVT WOULD
SUGGEST THAT WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE PWATS WITH
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC AND POSSIBLY BAJA. EARLY
SIGNALS IN THE GEFS INDICATE THIS WOULD PUT US NEAR THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY. AS THIS MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE
NORTHLAND WE WILL HAVE A FEW SYNOPTIC PLAYERS TO HELP GENERATE
SOME PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF KEY
FEATURES REMAIN IN FLUX. THE BIG PICTURE LOOKS TO INCLUDE A PAIR
OF SURFACE LOWS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE NORTHERNMOST LOW MAY HAVE A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN MN AND PROMOTE SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE. MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SEEM STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLAY LEADING TO
SOME FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS FOR LARGE HAIL.
EARLY NEXT WEEK:
THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA. WEATHER MODELS DEPICT SEVERAL INSTANCES OF IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. THERE AREN'T
ANY STRONG SIGNALS TO REALLY HONE IN ON AT THIS JUNCTURE BUT THE
CHANCES TO PUT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE SOIL WILL BE MOST WELCOME,
ESPECIALLY SINCE PORTIONS OF THE CWA SAW AN EXPANSION OF THE EXTREME
DROUGHT STATUS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
CALM TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
CURRENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH FOG
DISSIPATING TOWARDS 13-14Z THIS MORNING. SOME DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL AT HYR/HIB/BRD WHERE LIFR
VISIBILITY HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH THE 06Z TAF UPDATE.
VISIBILITIES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER DOWNWARDS WITH
AMENDMENTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD FOLLOWING THE FOG
WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL TURN TO OUT OF
NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 KNOTS. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON
SATURDAY WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEK. NO
CLEAR SIGNALS FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST YET, BUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. ADDITIONALLY, EASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MAY PROMPT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS TODAY. MIN RHS MAY DROP INTO SOME
UPPER 30S IN NW WI BUT MINIMAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. TOMORROW IS
SLIGHTLY LARGELY SIMILAR. WE DO START TO SEE AN ACTIVE PATTERN THAT
BEGINS THIS WEEKEND AND MAY LINGER INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO CLEAR
SIGNALS FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST YET, BUT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY BE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
TRENDS.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...BRITT
FIRE WEATHER...BRITT
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