578
FXUS63 KDLH 282333
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE STORMS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-2
IN MINNESOTA AND OVER MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY BE THE NEXT CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS, THOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER SIGNALS ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS:
ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY DEPARTING THROUGH THE DAY. SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWS INCREASING
CLOUD COVER SPILLING OVER FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO FLATTEN. THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS PLUS THE RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND A FEW SPOTS CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW 80S.
WEEKEND:
FRIDAY NIGHT CROSS BARRIER FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES LEADS TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS SD AND INTO SOUTHERN MN WITH A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING UP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
NORTHLAND SHOULD FIND ITSELF ON THE TIP OF THE NOSE OF THE JET WHICH
WILL PROMOTE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THE BETTER FORCING AND DYNAMICS FOR MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY
STAYS TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE REFS KEEPING OUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS
FAIRLY MINIMAL AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10" IF A STORM DOES MANAGE
TO DEVELOP EXPECT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ORIENTATION OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL WEEN ITSELF OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH THE OVERALL STRENGTH DECREASING AS WELL. WE WILL STILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW END POPS OF 20-30% TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA BUT OVERALL EXPECT COVERAGE AND ACTIVITY
TO DECREASE AS IT SHIFTS TO THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS STILL REMAIN IN FLUX FOR SUNDAY'S SYNOPTIC SET UP WITH THE
LATEST SHOWING QUITE THE DECREASE IN POPS. THE WARM FRONT THAT WAS
ORIGINALLY FORECASTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN MN HAS DRIFTED
MUCH FARTHER NORTH LEAVING THE NORTHLAND IN THE GAP BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THE GFS IVT ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC MOISTURE TRACKING
TO OUR SOUTH AND BEING WRAPPED UP WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. OVERALL, THE POPS HAVE BEEN DECREASED DOWN TO 20-
30% AND BASED ON THE LATEST CAMS AND SOUNDINGS IT WOULDN'T BE TOO
SURPRISING IF THAT DOWNWARD TREND CONTINUES IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST PACKAGES.
EARLY NEXT WEEK:
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MATURES OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL LIKELY BRING OUT NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHLAND. WITH THE DEEPENING LOW TO THE NORTH
AND A SECONDARY LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MN WE WILL SEE AN OCCLUDED
FRONT DRAPED OVER THE REGION AND PUSHING EAST THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE
AREA WILL ALSO SPORT SOME MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG.
PAIRING THESE TWO WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS DEVELOP. WILL WAIT
FOR MORE CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS BEFORE DIVING INTO MORE DETAILS OF
THREATS AND TIMING.
TUESDAY'S FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT IT STALLS
OUT OVER NW WI WHILE THE EURO SAGS IT FURTHER SOUTH OUT OF OUR
CWA. BOTH MODELS DO HIGHLIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
ENTERING FROM THE WEST THAT DAY, SO DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT
LIES THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF PAUSE IN THE RAIN CHANCES AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS IS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS
ENSEMBLES HIGHLIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
HIGH STRATUS WAS OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS OVER NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND SHOULD SUPPORT AN EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MOVE INTO BRD, DLH, AND HYR
OVERNIGHT WITH A GLANCING CHANCE AT HIB AND INL. LOOK FOR
CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
TERMINALS SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS
PERSIST.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE REGION.
THESE WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT BUT REMAIN LIGHT. THE
HEAD OF THE LAKE AND THE SOUTH SHORE WATERS MAY SEE SOME RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. NO
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEING
NEEDED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE. HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO DAY
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE FROM THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES RETURN
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A FEW STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN HOLDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY AS MULTIPLE SYSTEMS BRING RAIN
CHANCES. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. DESPITE THE ACTIVE PATTERN,
RAIN TOTALS WILL BE SPOTTY IN NATURE AND LARGELY LESS THAN 0.25".
AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...BRITT
FIRE WEATHER...BRITT
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