672
FXUS63 KDLH 290738
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
238 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE STORMS DURING THE CURRENT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE TO SOUTHERN
LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. AREAS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 1" OR MORE COULD OCCUR, PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA EAST TO INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND.
- SUNDAY EVENING INTO NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK LIKE THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, THOUGH THE POTENTIAL IS
NOT WIDESPREAD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
CURRENT OVERNIGHT - TODAY:
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN A WARM-ADVECTION REGIME
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THE CURRENT OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH BETTER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN
FAR WESTERN MN AND EASTERN SD/SOUTHWEST MN. IN THE SUBSEQUENT
HOURS THROUGH EARLY MORNING, EXPECT COVERAGE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS TO INCREASE AS BETTER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1.5" ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH
INTERACTS WITH THE NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. MODEL SOUNDING
PROFILES SHOW A FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY INSTABILITY PROFILE WITH
MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF
25-35 KT APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SEMI-ORGANIZED STORMS,
FURTHER ASSESSMENT OF THE VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT THE
SHEAR THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DEPTH OF THE STORMS IS RATHER WEAK.
THEREFORE, STORMS SHOULD KEEP MORE OF A PULSE TO MULTICELL
CLUSTER APPEARANCE AND NOT POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE IRON RANGE IN NORTHEAST MN AND INTO NORTHWEST WI AS
ACTIVITY MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING, THEN LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST WI.
HOWEVER, STRENGTH OF STORMS SHOULD BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET SLIDES EAST AND
WEAKENS.
WHILE MOST AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD SEE
AROUND 0.25-0.5" OR LESS, HREF LPMM AND SOME OTHER HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CURRENT CLUSTER NEAR MOORHEAD AS IT MOVES
EAST ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTO CENTRAL MN THAT
COULD PUT DOWN LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" IN A FEW HOUR
TIMESPAN. THE HIGHER PWATS SHOULD AID IN PRECIPITATION RATES
WITH THOSE FAIRLY SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL. A SECOND
BAND OF 0.5-1"+ PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FROM THE IRON RANGE
SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WI IS ALSO POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS IN THE
INSENTROPICALLY- FORCED BAND THERE. RAINFALL INTENSITIES SHOULD
DROP OFF TOWARDS MID-MORNING WITH THE EXIT OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET.
GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT VERY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND,
DON'T EXPECT THIS HEAVY RAIN TO PRODUCE MUCH FROM ISOLATED
PONDING AND ONLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IF SEVERAL STORMS
REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
SUNDAY - MONDAY:
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MAJORITY OF
SUNDAY REMAINING LARGELY DRY IN THE NORTHLAND WITHOUT MUCH, IF
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MOSTLY JUST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
DAYTIME SHOWERS (10-30% CHANCES), AS WE DECREASED POPS AGAIN.
MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EXTENDING EAST FROM THE UPPER-LOW IN THE FORM OF A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BRING A RETURN OF OUR NEXT ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE IT WILL BE CONNECTED TO
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THERE WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STORMS ARRIVING FROM THE
WEST GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TIMING APPEAR TO BECOME ELEVATED
IN NATURE, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES COULD POSE A THREAT FOR SMALL TO LARGE HAIL AND A
SECONDARY THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS. WHILE THIS STORM ACTIVITY
SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WOULD CURRENTLY BE
FAVORED IN CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL MN NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST MN,
THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIR BIT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE ON EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THEN, DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT ON
MONDAY, THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF TIME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST INDICATIONS AS OF NOW WOULD
FAVOR THE MOST INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWEST WI, THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD
COULD SEE STRONG STORMS AS WELL IF THE CURRENT FORECAST SPEED OF
THE OCCLUDED FRONT HOLDS.
IN ADDITION TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, HUMID DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70F ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-70S TO MID-80S ARE FORECAST AWAY FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY DUE TO SOME STRONG ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH
COULD ALSO CREATE A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES
NEAR THE TWIN PORTS. MONDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER-70S TO UPPER-80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE NORTH SHORE,
HOTTEST IN THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST WI.
TUESDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO NOTE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN NW WI TUESDAY PM INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ON TUESDAY BEFORE IT STALLS OUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS:
ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY DEPARTING THROUGH THE DAY. SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWS INCREASING
CLOUD COVER SPILLING OVER FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO FLATTEN. THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS PLUS THE RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND A FEW SPOTS CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW 80S.
WEEKEND:
FRIDAY NIGHT CROSS BARRIER FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES LEADS TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS SD AND INTO SOUTHERN MN WITH A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING UP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
NORTHLAND SHOULD FIND ITSELF ON THE TIP OF THE NOSE OF THE JET WHICH
WILL PROMOTE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THE BETTER FORCING AND DYNAMICS FOR MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY
STAYS TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE REFS KEEPING OUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS
FAIRLY MINIMAL AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10" IF A STORM DOES MANAGE
TO DEVELOP EXPECT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ORIENTATION OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL WEEN ITSELF OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH THE OVERALL STRENGTH DECREASING AS WELL. WE WILL STILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW END POPS OF 20-30% TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA BUT OVERALL EXPECT COVERAGE AND ACTIVITY
TO DECREASE AS IT SHIFTS TO THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS STILL REMAIN IN FLUX FOR SUNDAY'S SYNOPTIC SET UP WITH THE
LATEST SHOWING QUITE THE DECREASE IN POPS. THE WARM FRONT THAT WAS
ORIGINALLY FORECASTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN MN HAS DRIFTED
MUCH FARTHER NORTH LEAVING THE NORTHLAND IN THE GAP BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THE GFS IVT ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC MOISTURE TRACKING
TO OUR SOUTH AND BEING WRAPPED UP WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. OVERALL, THE POPS HAVE BEEN DECREASED DOWN TO 20-
30% AND BASED ON THE LATEST CAMS AND SOUNDINGS IT WOULDN'T BE TOO
SURPRISING IF THAT DOWNWARD TREND CONTINUES IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST PACKAGES.
EARLY NEXT WEEK:
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MATURES OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL LIKELY BRING OUT NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHLAND. WITH THE DEEPENING LOW TO THE NORTH
AND A SECONDARY LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MN WE WILL SEE AN OCCLUDED
FRONT DRAPED OVER THE REGION AND PUSHING EAST THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE
AREA WILL ALSO SPORT SOME MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG.
PAIRING THESE TWO WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS DEVELOP. WILL WAIT
FOR MORE CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS BEFORE DIVING INTO MORE DETAILS OF
THREATS AND TIMING.
TUESDAY'S FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT IT STALLS
OUT OVER NW WI WHILE THE EURO SAGS IT FURTHER SOUTH OUT OF OUR
CWA. BOTH MODELS DO HIGHLIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
ENTERING FROM THE WEST THAT DAY, SO DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT
LIES THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF PAUSE IN THE RAIN CHANCES AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS IS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS
ENSEMBLES HIGHLIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
PRESENT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA, WITH BETTER
COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND
OVER THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED STORMS
ALSO ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. MOST TERMINALS SHOULD SEE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND A LOWER (20-30 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS, HANGING AROUND LONGEST AT HYR INTO PARTS OF THE
AFTERNOON. INL MAY ONLY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE VICINITY DURING THE CURRENT OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS DIP TO
MVFR WITH AND BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION TODAY, WITH IFR CEILINGS
PERSISTING BEHIND THE RAINFALL AT DLH AND BRIEFLY AT HYR. LOOK
FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR WITH THE
PRECIPITATION. INL SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, AND
BRD SEES A RETURN TO VFR SATURDAY EVENING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
MAINLY THE HEAD OF THE LAKE AND THE SOUTH SHORE WATERS SHOULD SEE
SOME RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS MORNING, ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WILL SEE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO UPWARDS OF
25-30 KT AND LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM WINDS, WINDS
ON MONDAY REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR LESS BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 KT DEVELOPING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA EAST INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS MORNING, ENDING WEST TO EAST
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS THAT SEE RAIN SHOULD SEE
0.25-0.5" OR LESS, BUT TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA COULD PUT DOWN LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF
1-2"+ IF STORMS REMAIN OVER A GIVEN LOCATION FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO TUESDAY AS MULTIPLE SYSTEMS BRING RAIN CHANCES. THE
BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
AS THE MAIN THREATS. MOST OF THE NORTHLAND SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-
148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ140>142.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ143>145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ146-147-150.
UPDATE...ROTHSTEIN
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
FIRE WEATHER...ROTHSTEIN/BRITT
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