137
FXUS63 KDLH 302337
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
637 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY FOR THE BEACHES
AROUND THE TWIN PORTS. EXPECT DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO HIGH WAVES.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING, CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED,
ALTHOUGH A STRONG STORM OR TWO IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SUB-SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
- MONDAY IS TRENDING DRY, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE NORTHLAND REMAINING
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARM IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S FOR MOST.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING UNSEASONABLY WARM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE. DEWPOINT TEMPS
AND PWAT WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S BY THIS EVENING. AS A LOBE OF VORTICITY AT 500MB ASSOCIATED WITH
THE VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
PROPAGATES THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THIS WILL
LIKELY (50-75% CHANCE) BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
PREVIOUS FORECASTS INDICATED A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN AS THIS WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH.
HOWEVER, RECENT HI-RES MODELS RUNS HAVE REDUCED THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
TO THE POINT WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE
DULUTH CWA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE MUCAPE VALUES WILL
LIKELY BE INCREASING TO AN IMPRESSIVE 2,000 J/KG OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THIS INSTABILITY IS UNLIKELY TO BE REALIZED. A
SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL CAP WILL INCREASE SFC-BASED CIN UP TO 400 J/KG
AND DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT SEVERE
CONVECTION. WITH THIS BEING SAID, A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING UP TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
WINDS OF 50 MPH OR LESS BEING A SECONDARY CONCERN GIVEN THE CAPPING.
ON MONDAY, AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT WITH THE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS
TODAY, WHICH HAVE BEEN CAUSING DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AROUND
THE TWIN PORTS, SWITCHING TO THE WEST. DESPITE MUCAPE VALUES
REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
SIGNIFICANT CAPPING AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO KEEP THINGS DRY IN THE AFTERNOON. CAMS
ARE ALL IN SOLID AGREEMENT FOR MINIMAL TO NO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT ON MONDAY, SO KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY.
AS THE VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE PROPAGATES EAST-NORTHEAST
TOWARDS HUDSON BAY ON MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA
IN A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING. THE BULK
OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WI CWA HAS AN UP TO 30%
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH QPF PROGGED TO
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. ELSEWHERE, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
POTENTIALLY PROPAGATE THROUGH THE AREA. SIGNALS FOR DECENT
PRECIPITATION ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, WITH MOST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS FOR 24 HOUR QPF SHOWING RELATIVELY LIGHT AMOUNTS UNDER 0.5"
LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. CERTAINLY A WARM START TO SEPTEMBER!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
MVFR TO IFR CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
HAVE INCREASED, LEADING TO THE INCLUSION OF AT LEAST SOME OVERNIGHT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS WELL,
PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN STRONG TODAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTS SWEEP
THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS AS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS OCCURS AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 5
FEET CONTINUE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES EAST. WINDS EASE BELOW 10 KNOTS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, QUICKLY SHIFTING AROUND MIDDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE. ADDITIONAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WILL BE
INCREASING MOISTURE AND BRINGING A LIKELY CHANCE (50-75% CHANCE) FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN INTO THE
ARROWHEAD, WITH WETTING RAINS OF 0.25" OR GREATER FAVORED. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH
SMALL HAIL, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, AND LIGHTNING BEING CONCERNS.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
WINDS FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION SEEN TODAY INTO TONIGHT TO THE
WEST. THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR MONDAY, WITH MODERATELY DRY
MIN RH AS LOW AS 35% FORECAST AROUND THE CHIPPEWA NF AND BRAINERD
LAKES AREA. THESE MODERATELY DRY MIN RH VALUES SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST
WI ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN ARRIVING LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ037.
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LSZ140>142.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LSZ143>145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LSZ146-147-150.
DISCUSSION...UNRUH
AVIATION...LEVENS
MARINE...UNRUH
FIRE WEATHER...UNRUH
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