632
FXUS63 KDLH 310600
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
100 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA, EXITING THE ARROWHEAD
BY MID TO LATE THIS MORNING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A STRONG STORM OR TWO IN FAR NORTH-CENTRAL
MN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING 20-40% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST TO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR
TODAY AND TUESDAY, DROP BY A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE. DEWPOINT TEMPS
AND PWAT WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S BY THIS EVENING. AS A LOBE OF VORTICITY AT 500MB ASSOCIATED WITH
THE VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
PROPAGATES THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THIS WILL
LIKELY (50-75% CHANCE) BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
PREVIOUS FORECASTS INDICATED A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN AS THIS WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH.
HOWEVER, RECENT HI-RES MODELS RUNS HAVE REDUCED THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
TO THE POINT WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE
DULUTH CWA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE MUCAPE VALUES WILL
LIKELY BE INCREASING TO AN IMPRESSIVE 2,000 J/KG OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THIS INSTABILITY IS UNLIKELY TO BE REALIZED. A
SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL CAP WILL INCREASE SFC-BASED CIN UP TO 400 J/KG
AND DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT SEVERE
CONVECTION. WITH THIS BEING SAID, A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING UP TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
WINDS OF 50 MPH OR LESS BEING A SECONDARY CONCERN GIVEN THE CAPPING.
ON MONDAY, AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT WITH THE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS
TODAY, WHICH HAVE BEEN CAUSING DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AROUND
THE TWIN PORTS, SWITCHING TO THE WEST. DESPITE MUCAPE VALUES
REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
SIGNIFICANT CAPPING AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO KEEP THINGS DRY IN THE AFTERNOON. CAMS
ARE ALL IN SOLID AGREEMENT FOR MINIMAL TO NO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT ON MONDAY, SO KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY.
AS THE VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE PROPAGATES EAST-NORTHEAST
TOWARDS HUDSON BAY ON MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA
IN A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING. THE BULK
OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WI CWA HAS AN UP TO 30%
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH QPF PROGGED TO
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. ELSEWHERE, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
POTENTIALLY PROPAGATE THROUGH THE AREA. SIGNALS FOR DECENT
PRECIPITATION ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, WITH MOST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS FOR 24 HOUR QPF SHOWING RELATIVELY LIGHT AMOUNTS UNDER 0.5"
LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. CERTAINLY A WARM START TO SEPTEMBER!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
LARGELY MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AT DLH THROUGH
07Z AND THROUGH THE CURRENT OVERNIGHT AT INL/HIB. DLH AND AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LIFR CEILINGS IN LOW
STRATUS AND EVEN IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY IN FOG THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME SCATTERING OUT TO VFR AT TIMES
NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT BY BRD/HYR, SO THOSE TERMINALS
COULD SEE BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN VFR AND PERIODIC IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS. AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY WILL
QUICKLY CLEAR SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING VEERING WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 6-12 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KT BEHIND IT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO LOCALLY 30 KT PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING, WEAKENING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING THE
TWIN PORTS AND NORTH SHORE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING, ENDING LAST IN GRAND PORTAGE BY
LATE MORNING. WINDS WEAKEN BELOW 10 KNOTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND VEER SOUTHWESTERLY, WITH OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 15 KT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KT, STRONGEST FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND
PORTAGE. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE AND PORT WING TO OUTER APOSTLE
ISLANDS LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WILL BE
INCREASING MOISTURE AND BRINGING A LIKELY CHANCE (50-75% CHANCE) FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN INTO THE
ARROWHEAD, WITH WETTING RAINS OF 0.25" OR GREATER FAVORED. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH
SMALL HAIL, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, AND LIGHTNING BEING CONCERNS.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
WINDS FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION SEEN TODAY INTO TONIGHT TO THE
WEST. THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR MONDAY, WITH MODERATELY DRY
MIN RH AS LOW AS 35% FORECAST AROUND THE CHIPPEWA NF AND BRAINERD
LAKES AREA. THESE MODERATELY DRY MIN RH VALUES SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST
WI ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN ARRIVING LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ140>142.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ143>145.
DISCUSSION...UNRUH
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
FIRE WEATHER...UNRUH
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