840
FXUS63 KDLH 310709
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
209 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA, EXITING THE ARROWHEAD
BY MID TO LATE THIS MORNING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS IN FAR NORTH- CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING 20-40% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST TO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR
TODAY AND TUESDAY, THEN DROP BY A COUPLE DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
CURRENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH TODAY:
AS OF 200 AM CDT, A BAND OF ELEVATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD INTO THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
IS GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF A SURFACE
WARM FRONT DRAPED EAST FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION. FARTHER WEST, ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA IS LOCATED
ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. THIS SECOND AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE
CURRENT OVERNIGHT AND EAST ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
THROUGH EARLY TO MID- MORNING, GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT GETS
INTO THE ARROWHEAD. WHILE MOST STORMS WILL BE GENERAL IN NATURE,
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG--ESPECIALLY NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR--CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, LEADING TO RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES IN
ITS WAKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 MPH TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE TODAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST OF THE MINNESOTA-SIDE OF THE
NORTHLAND AND MID 80S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON, IT WILL FEEL MUGGY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES THERE IN
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 F. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS STILL SHOW
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF 1500-2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, BUT THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE TOO EARLY IN THE DAY TO BREAK
THROUGH A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE, WE KEPT THE TREND OF
A DRY FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY:
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL THEN PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA
AND NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY AND TUESDAY AND TO HUDSON/JAMES BAY
ON WEDNESDAY, KEEPING THE NORTHLAND LARGELY IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND MOST OF THE AREA DRY FOR
THIS PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHLAND, INCLUDING THE BRAINERD LAKES AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS WOULD DRIVE A 20-40% CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GIVEN PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR AT
ONSET, PRECIPITATION COULD BE A BIT DELAYED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNT PROBABILITIES LOOK LACKLUSTER, WITH ONLY A
10-30% FOR >0.25" AND LIKELY TO BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR ANY
LOCATIONS THAT ACTUALLY SEE ANY RAIN.
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
PERSIST ON TUESDAY, WARMEST IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THESE HIGH
TEMPERATURES DIP A COUPLE DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.
LATE THIS WEEK - WEEKEND:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEE THE LAST
PARAGRAPH OF THE "DISCUSSION" SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE. DEWPOINT TEMPS
AND PWAT WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S BY THIS EVENING. AS A LOBE OF VORTICITY AT 500MB ASSOCIATED WITH
THE VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
PROPAGATES THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THIS WILL
LIKELY (50-75% CHANCE) BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
PREVIOUS FORECASTS INDICATED A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN AS THIS WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH.
HOWEVER, RECENT HI-RES MODELS RUNS HAVE REDUCED THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
TO THE POINT WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE
DULUTH CWA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE MUCAPE VALUES WILL
LIKELY BE INCREASING TO AN IMPRESSIVE 2,000 J/KG OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THIS INSTABILITY IS UNLIKELY TO BE REALIZED. A
SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL CAP WILL INCREASE SFC-BASED CIN UP TO 400 J/KG
AND DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT SEVERE
CONVECTION. WITH THIS BEING SAID, A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING UP TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
WINDS OF 50 MPH OR LESS BEING A SECONDARY CONCERN GIVEN THE CAPPING.
ON MONDAY, AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT WITH THE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS
TODAY, WHICH HAVE BEEN CAUSING DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AROUND
THE TWIN PORTS, SWITCHING TO THE WEST. DESPITE MUCAPE VALUES
REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
SIGNIFICANT CAPPING AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO KEEP THINGS DRY IN THE AFTERNOON. CAMS
ARE ALL IN SOLID AGREEMENT FOR MINIMAL TO NO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT ON MONDAY, SO KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY.
AS THE VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE PROPAGATES EAST-NORTHEAST
TOWARDS HUDSON BAY ON MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THIS WILL PLACE THE CWA
IN A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING. THE BULK
OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WI CWA HAS AN UP TO 30%
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH QPF PROGGED TO
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. ELSEWHERE, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
POTENTIALLY PROPAGATE THROUGH THE AREA. SIGNALS FOR DECENT
PRECIPITATION ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, WITH MOST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS FOR 24 HOUR QPF SHOWING RELATIVELY LIGHT AMOUNTS UNDER 0.5"
LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. CERTAINLY A WARM START TO SEPTEMBER!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
LARGELY MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND MVFR TO BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AT DLH THROUGH
07Z AND THROUGH THE CURRENT OVERNIGHT AT INL/HIB. DLH AND AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LIFR CEILINGS IN LOW
STRATUS AND EVEN IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY IN FOG THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME SCATTERING OUT TO VFR AT TIMES
NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT BY BRD/HYR, SO THOSE TERMINALS
COULD SEE BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN VFR AND PERIODIC IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS. AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY WILL
QUICKLY CLEAR SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING VEERING WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 6-12 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KT BEHIND IT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO LOCALLY 30 KT PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING, WEAKENING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING THE
TWIN PORTS AND NORTH SHORE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING, ENDING LAST IN GRAND PORTAGE BY
LATE MORNING. WINDS WEAKEN BELOW 10 KNOTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND VEER SOUTHWESTERLY, WITH OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 15 KT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KT, STRONGEST FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND
PORTAGE. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE AND PORT WING TO OUTER APOSTLE
ISLANDS LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM AND
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MN INTO THE
ARROWHEAD THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, ENDING EAST OF THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD BY MID TO LATE MORNING. AREAS THAT SEE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH COULD PICK UP A QUICK 0.25-1" OF RAIN. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MOVING IN FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS OF 2 AM CDT
COULD BECOME STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THESE STORMS, STRONG
WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS
COULD APPROACH 20-30 MPH, HOWEVER.
AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FOR TODAY WITH DAYTIME TO EARLY
EVENING GUSTS OF 13-18 MPH. THE FORECAST MIN RH REMAINS
MODERATELY DRIER TODAY, DIPPING AS LOW AS 33-36% THE CHIPPEWA
NF AND BRAINERD LAKES AREA. MODERATELY DRY MIN RH VALUES OF
30-37% SHIFT EAST INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS ON TUESDAY GUST TO 15-20 MPH OUT OF THE WEST
FOR THE MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME LIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS (20-40% CHANCE) ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
EAST TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, BUT MOST OF THOSE LOCATIONS LOOK TO
ONLY SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL FOR THE REST OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MIN RH REMAINING ABOVE 40% AND
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ140>142.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ143>145.
UPDATE...ROTHSTEIN
DISCUSSION...UNRUH
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
FIRE WEATHER...ROTHSTEIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page