854
FXUS63 KDLH 151806
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
106 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
AND HIGH WAVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WIND AND WAVES
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM COULD
BRING AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR
BRAINERD TO MOOSE LAKE TO BAYFIELD.
- NEAR-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR
THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY:
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SETS UP FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY TO START, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS (10-40%) ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. AN ADDITIONAL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PASSING TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY
SHOULD KEEP THAT DAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, AND SOME MID 70S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES TO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY. RELATIVELY WARMER LOWS IN THE
40S TO LOW 50S (WARMEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR) WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS SHOULD KEEP ANY ADDITIONAL FROST CHANCES AT BAY.
FRIDAY - THIS WEEKEND:
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN TO THE NORTHLAND ON FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO ON
THURSDAY AND EJECTS IT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT AND
WARM SECTOR WILL DICTATE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, AMOUNTS, AND
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHLAND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE ECMWF EFI QPF VALUES WITH THIS SYSTEM DO SHOW A SWATH OF
0.5-0.6 (OUT OF A MAXIMUM OF 1) INTO PORTIONS OF INLAND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ALONG WITH 90TH-PLUS PERCENTILE PWATS
RELATIVE TO NAEFS CFSR CLIMATOLOGY, SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR AN
UNUSUALLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION SIGNAL FROM SEVERAL
EPS MEMBERS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALL THIS IS TO SAY THAT IF
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SETS UP IN THE IDEAL LOCATION JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA, A LOW-LEVEL JET RIDING OVER TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONT COULD SET UP A BAND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND, PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE
WPC DAY 5 SLIGHT RISK AREA ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THIS POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY, THE 13Z 9/14 RUN OF THE NBM
RAINFALL AMOUNT PROBABILITIES FOR 0.5" OR GREATER ARE 50-75%
SOUTH OF US-2, HIGHEST IN INLAND NW WI, BUT DON'T DROP OFF MUCH
FOR 1" OR GREATER WITH PROBABILITIES STILL 40-65% FOR THE SAME
AREAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND
VFR CIGS. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING, EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH CLEARING SKIES THOUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TONIGHT, PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH VIS AS LOW
AS LIFR. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR VIS REDUCTIONS ARE HIB,
DLH AND HYR. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR FROST, WHICH COULD
LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR FROST WILL BE INL
AND LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF HIB. FOG WILL LIFT EARLY, WITH WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MANITOBA WILL QUICKLY MOVE
TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY AND
PERHAPS NORTHWESTERLY AND ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. GALES OF 35 TO 45 KTS BEGIN
TO DEVELOP BY 12Z (7 AM CDT) AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND GALE WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF TODAY. IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THE GALE WARNINGS
END. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BECOME LIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH
WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN OCCURRED MONDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY ABOVE 45 PERCENT THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. WEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE CHANCES OF RAIN THIS WEEK
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140>148-150.
DISCUSSION...ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HUYCK
FIRE WEATHER...HUYCK
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