261
FXUS63 KDLH 192339
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
639 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE BEACHES OF THE
TWIN PORTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- FROST IS FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, BRINGING A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUD BASES AND
POTENTIALLY SOME VERY LIGHT AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS.
NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH AT THE HEAD OF THE
BIG LAKE IN THE TWIN PORTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS FOR LAKE SUPERIOR BEACHES.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTH SHORE LAKE EFFECT BELTS THE LIMITING
FACTOR LOOKS TO BE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE
FAIRLY LIMITED SO NOTABLE LAKE EFFECT RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE AN EVEN STRONGER PUSH OF WINDS OFF THE BIG
LAKE, LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR
THE TWIN PORTS BEACHES. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL AGAIN BE
NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AND ALSO LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY. GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE TWIN PORTS AND SOUTH SHORE COMMUNITIES
DURING THE DAYTIME SO IT COULD BE SOMEWHAT WINDY FOR THOSE
RECREATING EVEN ONSHORE SUNDAY DAYTIME. THIS SETUP OF NOTABLE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA ASSOCIATED
PRODUCING THE INCOMING COLD FRONT IS BRINGING IN A COLDER
AIRMASS, ALONG WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE FAR
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS DRIER AND SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH
MEANS A SMALL AREA OF FROST IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MINNESOTA
BORDERLANDS AND INTERIOR ARROWHEAD BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FROST
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE LIMITED AREAS PENDING THE EXACT
SKY COVER TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REAL CHILL ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS, WITH
POCKETS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALSO BECOMING MORE LIKELY BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FROST HEADLINES, AND POTENTIALLY FREEZE
WARNINGS, ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.
THESE FROST AND LOW-END FREEZE POTENTIAL CHANCES WILL LAST RIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER PATTERN. WE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WARM A BIT BY THURSDAY.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF
THE WEEK AHEAD. FINALLY, LOOKING TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, A POTENTIAL LATE WEEK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH, BRINGING
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA SOME LOW-END 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES OF
LIMITED-COVERAGE RAIN SHOWERS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FOG AGAIN, SPECIFICALLY AT HIB,
INL, AND HYR, THOUGH CHANCES ARE HIGHEST (~60%) AT HIB AND HYR.
ANY LINGERING LOW CEILINGS SUNDAY WILL LIFT THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST,
AND WILL BE STRONGEST AT DLH OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING FOR MOST OF WESTERN WATERS. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING
30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHWEST ARM AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT, AND A SHORT PERIOD OF GALES TO 35 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE
FROM SILVER BAY TO DULUTH AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ON SUNDAY.
WINDS DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING, BUT EXPECT LINGERING SWELL INTO
MONDAY FROM 1 TO 3 FEET UNDER CONTINUED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS AND LOCALLY GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE AND
SOUTHWEST ARM AGAIN.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST,
BECOMING QUITE GUSTY ON SUNDAY NEAR AND JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. MONDAY BEGINS A PERIOD OF NO PRECIPITATION WITH
GRADUALLY DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF MOISTURE BUILDS BACK INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA FOR
THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK ALSO BEGIN TO WARM
AGAIN LATER NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-
143>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ140.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...NLY
FIRE WEATHER...NLY
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